Do Federal Reserve officials share markets’ view that interest rates will probably end 2026 still in the 3.5-3.75 per cent range where they started?

The latest edition of the quarterly dot-plots — out at the same time as the rate decision today — will tell us.

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY investments, who earlier in his career was a regular at Federal Open Market Committee meetings, thinks the market has overbaked the prospect that the Fed remains on hold for the duration of this year.

“You’ll have one cut because that’s where the FOMC was in December. And the first level approximation is higher oil prices mean prices go up and activity goes down in about equal amounts,” Reinhart said.

“Nominal activity doesn’t change, and if nominal activity doesn’t change, probably there’s not a lot of reason for the nominal rate to change.”