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United Airlines is set to cut flights across its network by 5% in the second and third quarters of 2026 in response to the growing global fuel crisis. United CEO Scott Kirby has predicted that the price of fuel could rise as high as $175 per barrel and will likely remain over $100 until the end of 2027.
This would add a staggering $11 billion to United’s annual fuel bill, eating into the carrier’s profit margins and driving up airfares for customers. Despite demand for tickets remaining firm, the carrier has already slashed flights it deems unprofitable, including various midweek, red-eye and Saturday flights.
United To Reduce Capacity By 5% As Fuel Prices Soar
As reported by Reuters, United CEO Kirby wrote in a staff memo that the carrier will implement the network cuts in the second and third quarters as aviation fuel prices skyrocket. With prices almost doubling since the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East this February, airline fuel bills have suddenly become a lot more expensive, making current pricing and capacity models unsustainable. As a result, airlines worldwide are implementing aggressive network cuts, particularly on unprofitable or marginal routes.
United’s cuts will include three percentage points off its off-peak flights, including overnight and midweek services, as well as one point off its huge 
Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD) schedule. Additionally, its flights to 
Dubai International Airport (DXB) and Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) will remain suspended, making up the remaining percentage point. Kirby told staff in the memo,
“There’s no point in burning cash in the near term on flying that just can’t absorb these fuel costs.”
Full Capacity Restored By Fall
United’s network cuts will come during the spring and summer peak, when airlines typically generate their highest traffic. Q3 falls during the busy summer season and is the busiest in terms of pure volume. Meanwhile, Q2 has historically been one of the most lucrative quarters for United, capturing the Spring Break and early summer travel demand.
As it stands, the airline is aiming for a full return to capacity by the fall, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unstable. United has benefited from exceptional booking demand this year, registering its ten best booking weeks in history over the past ten weeks. However, even modest increases in fuel prices can have a huge impact on an airline’s margins, and Kirby doesn’t see the fuel crisis improving any time soon.
Earlier this month, Kirby predicted that airfares would go up “very soon” as the 2026 Iran Crisis intensified, and his comments have proven prescient. For example, rival Delta Air Lines has increased fares across its network by an average of 16% over a seven-day period, while low-cost carriers have been forced to implement even greater price hikes just to stay afloat.
How United Airlines Is Quietly Benefiting From Middle East Airspace Disruptions
United’s strong cash reserves and shifting passenger demand may allow it to benefit from Middle East airspace disruptions impacting global aviation.
How High Will Fuel Prices Go?
United is anticipating the cost of fuel per barrel to hit as high as $175, and will likely remain at over $100 for the next couple of years. Although airlines have some leeway to pass rising fuel costs onto the passenger, demand will taper off if these price hikes become too steep. Carriers aren’t just grappling with rising fuel prices, as Middle East airspace restrictions have also forced longer routings on long-haul routes, burning up more fuel and raising labor costs.
US airlines are at greater risk during fuel shocks compared to their European counterparts after moving away from fuel hedging practices. United is one of those airlines, which means it could spend as much as $11 billion more on its annual fuel bill as a result. Analysts have already noted that US airlines will collectively pay a similar premium on their fuel bills this year.
Long-haul flights have been particularly impacted, with some routes now averaging at double the cost compared to last month. Premium cabins are likely to see the most sustained price hikes in the coming weeks and months, as demand among these customers will be more resilient despite rising fares.
