Food inflation could hit 9% in the UK this year, even if the strait of Hormuz opens within the next few weeks, figures suggest, as the war in Iran pushes up energy prices.

The Food and Drink Federation, which represents 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, has predicted that prices will rise by “at least” 9% by the end of 2026, almost tripling a forecast made before the Middle East conflict of 3.2%.

Dr Liliana Danila, the chief economist at the FDF, said the industry was already facing big rises in energy, transport and packaging costs, as well as disruptions across its supply chains.

“The current situation is unprecedented and hard to predict,” she said. “Given the scale and speed of these cost increases, and despite companies’ best efforts not to pass price increases on, it’s clear that food inflation is going to rise in the months ahead.”

The 9% forecast assumes that the key strait of Hormuz shipping channel will reopen to cargo traffic within the next two to three weeks, and the majority of major energy facilities, such as oil, gas and fertiliser sites, return to normal within a year.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is preparing to meet the bosses of the UK’s biggest supermarkets on Wednesday afternoon.

Reeves is expected to meet executives including the bosses of Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Morrisons to discuss the potential impact on the cost of living and possible supply squeezes triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.

The food company Princes has raised its prices on all of its products in response to “unprecedented cost pressures” stemming from the war.

The company, which makes tinned tuna under the Princes brand, as well as Napolina pasta and Crosse & Blackwell soups, wrote a letter to its customers telling them the price hike was because of soaring costs, as first reported by the Grocer.

UK farmers and producers have said that without government help with surging energy bills there could be shortages of domestic tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers and aubergines.

Growers’ representatives have said that without support from ministers, or the retailers which they supply, fresh produce companies could go bust later this year as higher costs bite.

“Growers only historically only make money in the last few weeks of the season, as margins are so tiny in this sector. No one can absorb these kind of cost shocks, they have to be worked through with retailers,” said Simon Conway, the chair of the British Tomato Growers’ Association (BGTA).

Many businesses, which typically fix their energy contracts from April, will be hit by a sharp rise in costs from Wednesday amid increases in standing charges, the fixed daily cost added to bills for accessing the UK’s gas and electricity network.

The BTGA and other food producers are campaigning to be classed as “energy intensive users” by the government, which would help to reduce their bills. If there is no support, “businesses will fail”, said Conway.

Energy bills are just one extra cost facing food producers, along with higher prices for packaging and the fuel needed to transport goods to retailers.

The effect of a string of cost increases “hasn’t hit yet but is coming towards the end of the summer,” said Conway, adding that retailers remember the gaps on shelves in early 2023 when there were fresh produce shortages.

Meanwhile, household energy bills are due to fall until July,but are then expected to jump. The government is coming under increasing pressure to provide support on higher energy bills, although so far it has suggested that any help would be targeted for the most vulnerable households.

Reeves said in an interview with the BBC that the government was “looking at ways in which we can support people based on their household income”.

However, she did not commit to cutting fuel duty or VAT on petrol, saying that she had to be careful with promises to lower prices too much as it could then push up overall inflation, interest rates and taxes.