Good morning and welcome back. In today’s newsletter:

• UBS chief Sergio Ermotti plans to step down in April 2027

• Donald Trump threatens Iran’s trade partners with 25% tariffs

• Trade between EU member states slows

• How a London VC turned a million into billions

We begin with an exclusive story on UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti, who is planning to step down in April 2027.

What we know: Ermotti, who returned to run UBS in 2023 following its state-orchestrated takeover of its rival Credit Suisse, intends to leave after leading the integration of the two Swiss lenders, people familiar with the matter have told the FT.

Why it matters: Ermotti is preparing to leave at a crucial time for the bank as it fights Swiss government plans to tighten the lender’s capital requirements, a dispute that has fuelled speculation that Switzerland’s biggest bank could move its headquarters abroad.

The timetable for his departure around the time of the lender’s annual general meeting next year will kick off the succession race for one of the most coveted roles in banking. Here are the leading candidates.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Bank of England: Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at a meeting of the Bellagio Group.

• Economic data: The US publishes inflation data for December.

• Nato: Secretary-general Mark Rutte delivers a keynote address at a forum at the European parliament.

• France: A Paris court begins the appeal trial for French far-right leader Marine Le Pen over the misuse of EU funds.

• Results: Bank of New York Mellon, Delta Air Lines and JPMorgan Chase report earnings. See The Week Ahead for a fuller list.

How will shifting monetary policy, fiscal pressures and global volatility shape the year ahead? Join Chris Giles and an expert panel tomorrow as they unpack the economic outlook. Register here.

Five more top stories

1. President Donald Trump said countries doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25 per cent tariff on trade with the US, a move that could hit big economies such as China and India. Customs data shows more than 100 countries traded with Tehran on some level in the first half of 2025.

2. Exclusive: Trade between EU member states has fallen for the first time in almost a decade, apart from during the Covid-19 pandemic, European Commission figures show, despite efforts to reboot the single market in the face of economic threats from China and the US. Read the full report.

3. Shoppers in the US and China, the luxury industry’s two biggest markets, are turning to local alternatives to the European brands that have long dominated the market. Here are the labels winning over Gen-Z and middle-class buyers hunting for value.

4. Exclusive: Coutts, the centuries-old bank to Britain’s elite, is in talks to offer Ares and Apollo funds to its customers, as wealth managers rush to capitalise on the glut of investment by rich individuals into private markets. Read details of the evergreen vehicles the bank is considering.

5. Balderton Capital has cashed out roughly $2bn of its Revolut stake over the past year, cementing its early £1mn investment in the fintech as one of the most lucrative bets in European venture history and capping an exceptional year for the London firm.

The Big Read

European companies pioneered much of the technology used in renewables, but failed to capitalise on the move as Chinese groups came to dominate much of the industry. Can the west recover lost ground in the green tech battle?

We’re also reading . . . 

• HS2 costs: The high-speed connection between London, Leeds and Manchester is set to become the world’s most expensive strip of railway track per kilometre. Find out more.

• Scam centres: Sanctions and threats have failed to stop sprawling criminal networks in Cambodia that defraud internet users all over the world.

• Robotics in commerce: A “ChatGPT moment” for automation systems may have to wait as they demand planning, time and money, writes Sarah O’Connor.

• Compensation claim: Italian administrators overseeing Europe’s largest steelworks have sued its former owner ArcelorMittal, seeking €7bn in damages.

Chart of the day

Net migration to the UK has already subsided to pre-Brexit levels. But with tougher visa rules and new restrictions on migrants’ ability to settle still to take effect, analysts suggest the figure could fall below zero in the short term with far-reaching consequences for politics and society. 

Take a break from the news . . . 

Portuguese cuisine, defined by its simplicity and focus on quality ingredients, is making inroads in London. FT Globetrotter selects where to sample favourites such as bacalhau à Brás and bifana.