Higher intensity fighting, with the Strait of Hormuz mostly shut for several months, would see oil prices rising to $170. Global growth slows to 2.2% and inflation ends the year at 5.4% in that scenario. A lasting ceasefire or collapse of Iran could see the strait open sooner and oil costs falling back to pre-war levels, with global growth at 3.1% and inflation ending the year at 3.7%, the BE analysts including Tom Orlik wrote.