Estimate downgrades “are now seen as a matter of when, not if,” Barclays analysts led by Emmanuel Cau said, lowering European EPS growth expectations to 6% from 8% for 2026 if oil settles at about $85 to $90 a barrel. A major energy disruption, with oil at $100 a barrel or more, could result in low-single-digit growth at best, they added.