“The Conservative Party is facing an existential crisis,” Curtice said. “Farage’s aim is to replace them.”

This fear was palpable in Fareham.

“We had repeated assurances from her that she wouldn’t defect, so it’s a big surprise and a big disappointment,” said Harry Kewish, the local Conservative treasurer who answered the door at her former office. “She is convinced that she has made the right decision and will probably try to recruit some of us,” he said. “There are a lot of angry people.”

The question now is how high Reform’s ceiling is.

Having peaked at 35% in October, the party’s polling has settled back to 28%, according to several polls this month, still higher than any other party but not enough to rule without entering into a coalition.

Most of its new support since 2024 has been drawn from ex-Conservatives.

Another obstacle may be Farage’s longtime friendship and allyship with Trump. The president caused outrage in Britain — and particularly in military towns like Fareham, home to the HMS Collingwood naval training base — when he suggested British troops had not been near the front lines in Afghanistan. Farage said the comments were “wrong” but some voters are still wary.

“Some of their policies are a bit radical for my liking: the immigration stuff,” said Kevin Murphy, 70, a retired electrical engineer from nearby Porchester.

“I’m just afraid that with all these far-right policies that we’re going to end up like Donald Trump,” said Murphy, who cites the immigration enforcement raids in Minnesota as his chief concern. “If you look at what he’s doing in America… my god.”