After powering down for its traditional winter hiatus, the House of Commons is set to reopen for business next week and barring any dramatic last-minute changes to the Liberal lineup — which, as demonstrated last fall, is always a possibility and rarely telegraphed in advance —  Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government will still be just a few votes shy of a majority.

A quick check of the parliamentary standings confirms that, with Chrystia Freeland finally having formally vacated her Toronto-area riding earlier this month, the Liberals will hold 170 seats, although that number includes House of Commons Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia, who, as per longstanding tradition, would only exercise his franchise to break a tie. For practical purposes, the government will need the support of at least three non-Liberal MPs — or a corresponding number of absences or abstentions — to end up on the winning side of a vote.

Freeland’s resignation will, of course, trigger a by-election, which, as Election Canada notes in the release confirming her departure, “must be announced between January 20 and July 8, 2026,” making Mar. 2 the earliest possible date for the vote to be held in what is widely viewed as one of the safest  Liberal ridings in the country.

It does, however, mean that in the interim, Carney and his team will have one fewer vote to count on, although they won’t have to navigate the potentially treacherous dynamics of a high-stakes, make-or-break budget vote, as the annual fiscal roadmap will now be presented in the fall.

There may, of course, be a spring fiscal update — which, depending on the scope, could potentially meet the threshold to be considered a ‘mini-budget’ — but that’s not guaranteed.

There are, however, several mission-critical bills still in the queue from the previous sitting, including Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne’s pitch to roll out the measures outlined in his inaugural budget in November, which, after a prolonged slog through second reading, is now on track to hit committee as early as next week, as well as the government’s pitch to overhaul bail and sentencing rules, which has also been referred to committee but has yet to make it onto the table due to a weeks-long standoff over legislation that would expand current hate crime laws to include, among other things, displaying a swastika or other Nazi regalia, which still doesn’t have a clear path to third-reading approval.

Also heading for the justice committee: An omnibus package of criminal justice reforms that includes new laws against coercive conduct, harassment and pornographic ‘deep fakes’, among other provisions, which is still working its way through second reading.

It’s also a new supply cycle, which mean a fresh batch of seven opposition days to be scheduled on or before Mar. 26, 2026, which is also the deadline for MPs to sign off on the latest estimates — and, as such, automatically considered a question of confidence, which might be enough to convince the prime minister to trigger that byelection earlier rather than later.

Also on the radar: A quick check of the parliamentary website reveals no fewer than 200 written questions awaiting a response on Jan. 26  — the 45-day deadline is based on calendar days, not sitting days, which means even queries filed as late as Dec. 9 are due to be answered.

At some point during the first few days of the sitting, Carney will also face off against his opposition adversaries, and while there’s no rule that requires that he be in his front-and-centre seat in the chamber when the curtain rises on the first question period of the year, there’s a good chance he will be.

When he does, he’ll likely be challenged to provide more details on exactly what he accomplished during his now-wrapped trip to Beijing — and how he intends to support the Canadian auto sector after agreeing to relax the 100 per cent tariff on Chinese-made EVs in exchange for reopening a key market for Canadian canola —  as well as his plans for the now imminent review of the existing free trade deal between Canada, Mexico and the United States.

Finally, although as of right now, there’s no indication that Carney will be making any major adjustments to his front bench team ahead of the new sitting, there’s nothing stopping him from changing the seating plan at the cabinet table after the sitting gets rolling.