Researchers at the University of Bonn recently examined these lasting impacts using data from the “Asian financial crisis” of the late 1990s. During that period, turmoil in financial markets caused rice prices to surge dramatically in Indonesia, where rice is the primary staple food. According to the study, this sudden rise in food costs left measurable marks on the physical development of children. The findings were published in the journal “Global Food Security.”

Rice Price Inflation and Child Growth

To investigate the effects, researchers from the Center for Development Research (ZEF) at the University of Bonn analyzed data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), a long running study that tracks households over many years. They examined regional differences in rice price inflation between 1997 and 2000 and compared those patterns with body measurements recorded during childhood and later in early adulthood.

“We see that a massive price shock not only has a short-term impact, but can also affect the long-term physical development of children,” says Elza S. Elmira, the study’s lead author. “The crisis-induced price rise increased chronic malnutrition and was associated with a 3.5 percentage point increase in child stunting. Children severely affected will not only remain shorter than their unaffected peers later in life, they will also be significantly more prone to obesity.”

Hidden Nutrient Deficiencies During Economic Crisis

The link between childhood malnutrition and a greater risk of obesity later in life initially surprised the research team. Elmira offers a possible explanation.

“In times of crisis, families save less on calories than on more expensive, nutrient-rich foods. This results in a ‘hidden deficiency’ of important micronutrients, which slows down height growth without necessarily reducing body weight to the same extent.”

The researchers continued tracking the same individuals through 2014, when they were between 17 and 23 years old. Among those who were three to five years old during the crisis, the data revealed clear connections between early exposure to the price shock, body mass index (BMI), and the likelihood of obesity later on.

Protecting Children During Critical Development

“Deprivation in early childhood can have lifelong effects — growth disorders are easier to measure but are often accompanied by mental development impairments and an increased risk of obesity and chronic diseases,” says Prof. Dr. Matin Qaim, co-author of the study. “In the same crisis, undernutrition and obesity can both increase. This underscores the importance of nutrition-sensitive crisis policy: it must specifically protect children in sensitive development stages. If food policy is only concerned about calories, it can miss the real problem.”

The agricultural economist is member of the Transdisciplinary Research Area “Sustainable Futures” at the University of Bonn and the Cluster of Excellence “PhenoRob — Robotics and Phenotyping for Sustainable Crop Production.”

Urban Families and Education Levels Matter

The study found the effects were strongest in cities. Urban households typically rely on purchasing food, while some rural families grow their own rice, which can reduce their exposure to price spikes.

Education also plays a significant role. Children whose mothers had lower levels of education were much more affected than those whose mothers had higher education levels.

“The results suggest that crisis aid should not be based solely on poverty lines,” emphasize Elmira and Qaim. “Especially in cities and in places with low knowledge about balanced diets, a price shock can worsen the quality of nutrition such that the consequences are long term and irreversible.”

Why the Findings Matter Today

The researchers note that shocks to harvests, incomes, and food prices are becoming more common around the world because of conflicts, pandemics, and extreme weather. The Indonesian case provides real world evidence showing how economic turmoil can translate into long lasting health risks through rising food prices.

The authors caution that their findings reflect statistical relationships. Over long time periods, it is not always possible to completely rule out other factors that might also influence the results.