“Big Oil is recalibrating back to upstream, but years of reduced activity has left many oil and gas companies with production profiles more aligned with net zero pathways than the higher-for-longer scenario that is playing out. The core strategic challenge is how to sustain output and cash flow when reinvestment rates are roughly half of mid-2010s levels,” said Neivan Boroujerdi, Director, Corporate Research at Wood Mackenzie. “Not every company will succeed, making further industry consolidation inevitable. Fundamentally, companies will need to deploy every tool in the playbook to square the circle.”