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ABC News projects Texas Sen. John Cornyn will face a runoff against state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The Senate primaries are among those in the state that have national implications and will shed insight into American attitudes one year into President Donald Trump’s second term.
Trump has made it clear that he is keeping a close eye on the state, announcing endorsements in select House races but staying on the sidelines for the Senate race.
Sen. John Cornyn arrives for a press conference in Washington, D.C., Feb. 10, 2026. | Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton arrives for the State of the Union address on Feb. 24, 2026, in Washington, D.C. | Rep. Wesley Hunt arrives at a campaign event, Feb. 16, 2026, in Dallas.
Kent Nishimura/Reuters | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | Julio Cortez/AP
State significance
The race between Cornyn, who is seeking his fifth term in the Senate, and Paxton is the “most expensive Senate primary on record,” according to tracking firm AdImpact, with over $122 million dedicated to ad spending and reservations.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett is facing off against state Rep. James Talarico, two rising stars in the Democratic Party who hope to flip the seat for the first time in decades.
This election also marks the moment in which redistricting will begin to play out. Following Trump’s encouragement last summer, Texas spearheaded the redistricting wars — triggering a Supreme Court case, sparking national debate over mid-decade gerrymandering, and prompting other states to follow suit.
Now, newly drawn maps are likely to deliver five GOP pickups for the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a razor-thin majority.
Rep. Tony Gonzales speaks during a House Homeland Security Committee hearing, Feb. 10, 2026, in Washington, D.C.
Samuel Corum/Getty Images
While Texas’ 23rd Congressional District is expected to stay red, the showdown between Trump-endorsed incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales and Brandon Herrera will be one to watch, especially after multiple Republicans have called upon Gonzales to resign following an alleged relationship with his former staffer who died by suicide.
In the gubernatorial race, ABC News projects Trump-endorsed Gov. Greg Abbott, who is running for his fourth term in a state where governors do not have term limits, will face state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic candidate.
