US government reviews of the war in Iran show that the Trump administration may be ill-equipped for a regime-change war, according to reports.

The Washington Post reported on Saturday morning that a classified intelligence review found that the war in Iran is unlikely to oust the Iranian establishment, despite the Trump administration’s desire to continue its attacks.

At the same time, Democrats are warning that the airstrikes on Iran are diminishing US stockpiles of certain weapons, a point of concern that came up during a closed-door briefing earlier this week between Trump administration officials and members of Congress.

Despite ongoing negotiations, the US and Israel began bombing Iran last week, during a campaign that assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian leaders. Iran has engaged in retaliatory strikes, targeting Israel, US installations in the region and several Middle Eastern countries hosting US bases.

Since the strikes began, the Trump administration has claimed that Iran has attempted to negotiate a ceasefire, despite multiple reports showing the contrary.

For years, Iran hawks in the US have pushed for a regime-change war, warning that Iran’s nuclear program has been close to producing a nuclear weapon. Since last April, Iran and the US have engaged in negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has repeatedly said that the nuclear program is purely for civilian purposes.

Israel and the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites last June, leading to a significant escalation of tensions between the countries. Negotiations continued, but, despite them, the US and Israel launched large-scale attacks on Iran this past week.

The US and Israel have now been bombarding Iran for a week, striking government buildings and military installations. They have also hit civilian buildings, hospitals and schools. On the first day of the bombing campaign, 168 young girls were killed in a direct strike on their school. The Associated Press later reported that the deadly strike likely came from the US.

Trump spoke on Saturday at the Shield of the Americas summit, a gathering of rightwing leaders in the western hemisphere in Florida, just hours after Iran’s president apologized to neighboring countries for missile strikes.

“We’re doing very well in Iran, you see the result,” Trump said. “And it’s been amazing. We’ve knocked out 42 navy ships, some of them very large, in three days. That was the end of the navy. We’ve knocked out the air force. We knocked out their communications and all telecommunications is gone.”

“They’re bad people, they’re just bad people,” he added. “Eight months ago, they would have had a nuclear weapon. And they’re crazy, and they would have used it, so we did the world a favor.”

However, US intelligence points to a different potential outcome, despite a prolonged and aggressive war.

As the Post reported, a classified report by the National Intelligence Council shows that a bombing campaign may not oust Iran’s military and clerical establishment. The report, completed in mid-February, outlined two potential actions by the US. In both cases, the outcome would remain the same: Iran’s government would follow protocols for a successor of the country’s supreme leader.

After Khamenei was assassinated last week, the Iranian government quickly named an interim leadership council, made up of the Iranian president and other top officials. The council is in charge of choosing the country’s next supreme leader.

Intelligence officials said it was “unlikely” that Iran’s opposition would take control of the country.

With increasing worries around US stockpiles of weapons, some Democratic senators are concerned that, with the quick use of missiles and advanced weapons, other countries that rely on US military assistance, like Ukraine and others, may not be able to effectively protect themselves.

In an interview with Time Magazine, the Connecticut senator Richard Blumenthal said he was “deeply concerned about Ukraine”, adding that US military “resources and supplies are limited, and I think we will be hard pressed, at some point, to tell Ukraine what is coming”.

Another expert who spoke with the AP said the concern was not about the conflict in Iran, but rather potential military escalations in the future.

“I’m not particularly worried about us actually running out during this conflict,” said Ryan Brobst, a scholar focused on US defense strategy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, in an interview with the AP. “It’s about deterring China and Russia the day after this conflict is over.”

Weapons manufacturers have already agreed to increase their production. On Friday, Lockheed Martin said it agreed to “quadruple critical munitions production”.