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Republicans padded their slim House majority with a special election win in Georgia on Tuesday night. But the race also marked the biggest swing against the GOP compared with the 2024 presidential results out of seven House special elections in President Donald Trump’s second term.
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It’s the latest sign of an encouraging political environment for Democrats, though the results in lower-turnout special elections never translate exactly to November. Democrats hope to mobilize voter frustration with Trump and his party to break the Republicans’ unified control of Washington this year.
Republican attorney Clay Fuller, Trump’s pick to fill the seat vacated by GOP former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation this year, is projected to defeat Democrat Shawn Harris and hold Georgia’s 14th Congressional District for Republicans. But the results Tuesday look nothing like in 2024, when Trump won the district by almost 37 points and Greene won by about 29 points.
Fuller led Harris by 55.9% to 44.1% with 99% of the expected vote in, according to NBC News’ Decision Desk. That’s a 12-point margin — and a 25-point swing from Trump’s margin.
The previous biggest swing in a House special election during Trump’s second term came about a year ago, in Florida’s 1st District. There, Democrat Gay Valimont lost by about 15 points, a 23-point improvement on Trump’s 37-point victory margin, even as Republican Jimmy Patronis won the seat. In another special House election the same day, in the state’s 6th District, Democrats improved on Harris’ 2024 margin by 16 points.
And in a December special House election in Tennessee, the Democratic candidate lost by 9 points about a year after Trump won the district by 22 points.
The trend across those House special elections has also extended to other special elections, helping Democrats flip 11 state legislative seats in special elections since the start of last year. And there are signs the party isn’t doing that just by turning out more Democrats while Republicans stay home: An NBC News Decision Desk analysis found that Democrats’ most recent state legislative wins in Florida came despite the fact that more registered Republicans voted in those races than registered Democrats.
Harris’ overperformance in Georgia stands out from the other Democratic congressional candidates in Republican-held seats because he spent the least amount of campaign funds on ads, according to the tracking firm AdImpact.
Harris spent $1.1 million on ads in the race, including $298,000 since the first round of voting March 10. Fuller and Republican outside groups spent a combined $4 million, including $1.1 million since March 10.
Harris’ most recent campaign finance report, which detailed spending through March 18, showed that his campaign spent heavily on digital fundraising and building his donor list and on running a field program.
In both Florida special elections, the Democratic candidates, Josh Weil and Gay Valimont, outspent Republican groups and their respective GOP opponents, Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis, on the airwaves. In Tennessee, Democrat Aftyn Behn spent $3.5 million on the airwaves. Republican Matt Van Epps and his GOP allies ultimately spent $7.5 million, thanks to a late spending push from Republican groups.
