Outside of the current circles of power in tech and politics, however, prediction markets continue to face questions about insider trading (banned by Polymarket’s rules but difficult to enforce on any anonymity-optimized platform) and the fundamental morality of placing bets on violent conflicts. In March, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes charged Kalshi with running an illegal gambling operation for offering betting contracts on four elections in the state.

And some prediction-market users, like certain sports gamblers, seem unable to accept the reality that they placed the wrong bet. Israeli journalist Emanuel Fabian recently received a round of death threats from Polymarket users demanding that he change a description of an Iranian missile attack to align with their own bets; Polymarket said it suspended the users after Fabian went public with this harassment.

Third-party research of cryptocurrency wallet addresses on Polymarket has shown that only a small minority of users—from as low as 7.5 percent to as “high” as 30 percent—show realized profits.

It’s all marketing

In some ways, the marketing at Polymarket’s bar was surprisingly low key. The place offered no discounts or freebies to patrons who opened an account or installed the platform’s apps, and the menu itself was unchanged from the bar’s normal incarnation as a sports bar called Proper 21—foreclosing the possibility of Polymarket puns in cocktail names.

One of the beers I ordered did, however, come in a Situation Room-labeled pint glass. The guys sitting next to me—with whom I had gotten into an involved conversation about self-driving cars—suggested I steal it, but I limited myself to pocketing a Situation Room coaster.

The Situation Room isn’t Polymarket’s first venture in what marketing types call “activations.” In February, it opened a grocery store in Manhattan that offered free groceries—as many as shoppers could fit into a single Polymarket-branded tote bag—for three days.

The company has been telling other news outlets that it may explore establishing a longer-lasting version of the Situation Room. But even if this concept doesn’t appear again, “will Polymarket do more IRL marketing stunts?” seems like the safest of bets.