The season has barely begun but Ayia Napa is beginning to feel the pulse. Tourists are trickling back, enjoying the Cypriot resort’s sunsets, eateries and shoreline views.

On the seafront, Vassilis Georgiou is busy overseeing the construction of a new ramp for the jetskis that are a highlight of his water sports business. Last year, more than 500,000 holidaymakers visited the beachside booth, snapping up tickets for the boat cruises and parasailing also on offer.

Until last weekend’s US-led offensive against Iran, Georgiou was betting on another bumper year. “That’s far from certain now,” he said, cupping his eyes against the setting sun. “It may be early days but I’ve been here since 1992 and suddenly hoteliers are saying bookings are down. People are thinking twice.”

No place in Europe, or indeed the Mediterranean, is set to feel the impact of the conflict unfolding across the horizon more than Cyprus. The tourist-dependent nation, the EU’s nearest member to the Middle East, attracted 4 million visitors last year, a third of them Britons for whom the former colony is an old favourite.

This year could be different. Amid Iran’s retaliatory attacks, a drone launched by pro-Iranian militia hit the British base of RAF Akrotiri late on Sunday, placing Cyprus firmly in the “risk zone” and prompting the cancellation of many flights from east and west.

As sirens at the base continued to sound in the following days, the British Foreign Office updated its travel advice for Cyprus to say that terrorist attacks could not be ruled out.

“We’re hearing of cancellations, of a certain numbness at this week’s ITB,” said Fotos Kikillos at Ayia Napa’s town hall, referring to the Berlin trade fair widely viewed as setting the tone for the travel industry. But he added: “As you can see, life here is very safe. People are enjoying themselves. There’s no sense of fear. The last thing we want in Cyprus is to be dragged into this war.”

Among those ambling through the resort town’s plaza last week were Karin and Oliver Kiilaspa, a young couple who had flown in from their native Estonia on the day the British base was hit.

Like most visiting Ayia Napa at this time of year, they had come for “a bit of sun, a bit of culture” – not the clubbing scene that attracts thousands of young revellers at the height of the season. “We were a little worried because we’re here with our baby daughter but we wanted to think positively,” said Karin. “There’s a lot of snow where we come from and it’s like spring in Cyprus. We didn’t want to cancel because of what’s happening, because of a war. Trump is a psychopath.”

It was a refrain echoed by older Europeans in the country’s premier seaside destination. Marianne Steglich, a Danish retiree participating in a guided tour of what began as a fishing village in the far eastern end of the island, was clear: “We’re here for three weeks and I wasn’t going to miss it because of what they [the US and Israel] are doing.”

Those with memories of the 1974 Turkish invasion and its traumatic aftermath – events that would leave Cyprus ethnically fractured with Greek and Turkish Cypriots living either side of a UN-patrolled buffer zone – laugh at concerns the country is suddenly considered unsafe.

“Bah! When you’ve seen the skies full of parachutes and bombs going off, then you get afraid,” said a shopkeeper who gave his name as Evros. “This, today, is a picnic.”

Andri Christoforou, who has worked eight summers in Ayia Napa, wholeheartedly agrees. It has not escaped the fish tavern manager that tourists have “got used” to the sight of missiles coursing through the night skies of the eastern Mediterranean.

Last summer, during the Gaza crisis, she recalls, diners could see war on the horizon as they ate on the terrace of Vassos restaurant, one of Ayia Napa’s oldest eateries. “People come here on holiday, to have a nice time,” she said. “Of course we’re worried. Everyone is talking about this war, the future and how long it is going to last. You have to be positive, otherwise it harms your health.”

Accepting that cancellations had been seen across the Mediterranean, Kostas Koumis, the Cypriot deputy tourism minister, has been quick to concede that while Cyprus had survived similar crises in the recent past, this time was different: the island nation had been forced to deal with a hostile incident on its own soil.

Everything, he insisted last week, would depend on how long the war lasted. “The unofficial start of the tourist season, every year, is essentially Catholic Easter which [this year] falls on 5 April,” he said. “If, by then, everything stops, then we can expect a good tourist season.