The House of Commons will resume sitting on Monday for the first time in 2026 but it’s unclear how many of Canada’s major political issues will be decided in the nation’s capital as focus shifts to the start of renegotiations of the North American free trade pact and efforts to bolster economic ties beyond the continent.

That means the work of parliamentarians may be overshadowed by rumblings in Washington on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s latest overseas trade pitch, or even disputes amongst the provinces as talks on overhauling the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) come into focus.

But Stevie O’Brien, a chief of staff in the Trudeau government, said no one can afford to discount Parliament, especially as the Liberals remain a minority government — at least for the time being.

“While many of the big things in 2026 are not focused on parliamentary activities or processes, it would be very foolish for any party to take their eyes off of off of Parliament,” she said in an interview.

“A wrong step there by anyone can have some dramatic consequences.”

‘Not good partners for anybody’ – Blanchet rips Liberals for refusing to negotiate on budget

The math in the House of Commons changed fairly dramatically in the fall. The Liberals picked up two seats from Conservative floor-crossers and Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux announced in November he would resign in the spring and hasn’t voted since that time.

The movement has put the Liberals one seat shy of a majority but not out of the woods when it comes surviving confidence tests in the House.

Chrystia Freeland’s resignation earlier this month means the Liberals are back down to 170 seats, and one of those seats belongs to the speaker, who only votes in the case of a tie.

Even if Jeneroux continues to abstain, the Liberals could fall if the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc Quebecois team up to vote against them. In that case, Green Leader Elizabeth May would be the deciding vote (at least until Freeland’s seat is filled) but she might have a tough time backing the Liberals after suggesting she was misled by the government on the budget.

But it doesn’t appear as if anyone is eager for another trip to the polls.

Most polls show the Liberals and Conservatives locked in a close race, with the NDP and Bloc Quebecois far behind but improving on their showings in last April’s federal election.

David Coletto, founder and CEO of pollster Abacus Data, said the Liberal and Conservative voting coalitions remain largely in tact, though it’s a “good sign” for the prime minister that his personal and government approval ratings remain strong some 10 months after taking over.

“I think it suggests that his coalition is still largely of the view that he is the best choice to lead the country, that all the things that they worry about, they see him as someone who can help guide the country through this really difficult and unstable moment.”

Despite the close national horse race, Coletto warned that calling for an early election brings a lot of risk for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who must survive a leadership review at the party’s convention later this month in Calgary.

While most insiders say Poilievre will easily clear the review, they warn that if he fails to lead the party to victory in the next election, he’ll be booted out.

That might temper any desire to throw the dice and push for an early election, especially if Donald Trump and global affairs remains top of mind for voters, as polls show it’s one of the top issues where Carney and the Liberals outperform the opposition.

It’s also possible that chasm has grown bigger in the wake of Carney’s well-received speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this week. And with CUSMA renegotiations set to start later this year, it’s unlikely it will drop from the headlines anytime soon.

Coletto said he doesn’t know if Carney’s WEF speech has moved the needle but it’s clear that that when Canadians are focused on Trump, the Liberals stand to gain.

“It is actually that simple. The more as Trump rises and falls on our top issue list, so too does Liberal support, particularly among older people. [They’re the] people paying attention to the news on a regular basis,” he said.

“This sounds crass to say, but it is a good week politically for the Liberals when Donald Trump is in the focus, and a less good week when we’re more focused on the price of food or how hard it is to buy a home.”

Marisa Maslink, a Conservative strategist and vice-president with McMillan Vantage, said Poilievre and the Conservatives need to offer a compelling alternative vision for Canada’s place in the world to voters but acknowledged that focus for the first week of Parliament will be directed towards winning over the base.

That’s because there will only be five sitting days before the party’s convention, which runs from Jan. 29-31.

In that first week, Maslink said the party needs to be “laser-focused on maximizing Question Period and committee appearances around issues like cost-of-living, crime, natural resource projects, and the gun buyback which should appeal to party delegates,” adding that these issues “largely overlap with the government’s dominant domestic vulnerabilities.”

But after the convention, she said the Conservatives cannot afford to ignore bigger geo-political issues, warning that a “changing and unstable world [could] complicate a tightly controlled affordability-first message.”

“Following the convention, while Conservatives will likely continue to hammer on bread-and-butter domestic issues, they will speak more to Canada’s role in the world and how the Liberal government has placed Canada in a vulnerable position,” Maslink said.

Coletto said Abacus polling shows Poilievre is facing a challenging decision on his path forward, as he remains hugely popular with Conservatives but polarizing amongst the broader electorate.

As his personal approval ratings fall, should Poilievre do whatever he can to keep together the 41 per cent of voters that backed him in April and hope the Liberals stumble or the NDP recovers? Or does he look to soften his image and try to bring in him new supporters?

“I think people have increasingly viewed him more negatively. He’s more polarizing than he was even during the election. And I think that is a potential problem if their strategy is to grow,” Coletto said of Poilievre.

“if their strategy is to do everything they can to hold the 40 per cent together and they think in the future, they might be able to win simply on that, then it’s not necessarily a problem for him.”

In any case, Coletto said Poilievre needs to offer some alternative global vision to voters, arguing that even if it won’t win over Liberal supporters, it may allow him to “neutralize” the issue.

“Because it could be that people may not be voting Conservative or maybe voting Liberal because they don’t think the Conservatives and Mr. Poilievre have a reasonable answer to some of these questions,” he said.

“You want them to vote for you because it’s they think crime is too high, or immigration is too high, or the cost of living is too high. But in order to get people to focus on that, they the salience of these global issues need to soften.”

Despite the shift to looking abroad, NDP strategist Erin Morrison said the House still plays an important role in these global debates and offers opportunities for opposition parties to push the government in the direction desired by voters.

Erin Morrison, a vice-president with Texture Communications, said Canadians understand that dealing with Trump requires finesse but generally want the “elbows-up approach they were promised and often feel they are not getting.”

“The daily work of the House, including question period, is designed to push the government in the direction Canadians want. The House is also be responsible for keeping an eye on who is being left out,” she said, adding that affordability issues will continue to resonate and Canadians remain concerned that Carney isn’t terribly focused on their day-to-day woes.

“There’s anxiety out there that Carney the banker will grade himself by the health of Canadian banks — not the well-being of everyday Canadians. So, in short, I think it matters. Our new normal is a cost-of-living nightmare, and that’s seizing Canadians’ attention as much as Trump is (polling indicates the cost of living is still the top issue).”

That’s not to say the Liberals haven’t offered any legislation aimed at dealing with domestic issues.

In the spring and fall sittings, the government tabled bills cutting income taxes, expanding the GST rebate for first-time homebuyers, overhauling border security, tackling hate crimes, tightening rules to make it harder for people accused of violent crimes to get bail and attempting to restore minimum mandatory sentences struck down by the courts.

The Liberals also signalled plans in the fall budget to lower the number of newcomers admitted into Canada and slash the size of the federal public service.

But none of these bills passed in Parliament, with only two pieces of government legislation — excluding routine supply bills that authorize spending money — becoming law. One of those was the major projects and internal trade bill known as C-5, which passed in the spring. The other, which restored citizenship status to the so-called Lost Canadians, was facing a court-imposed deadline.

MacKinnon blames Conservatives for obstructing Parliament to help Poilievre’s chances in leadership review

Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon blamed obstructionist Conservatives for derailing the work of Parliament in the fall, saying it was part of an effort to shore up support for Poilievre in the run-up to the convention.

The Tories maintain they’re willing to work with the Liberals but the government keeps putting forward lacklustre legislation, noting their border security bill had to be reintroduced after it was widely panned.

All of this finger-pointing is common in a minority Parliament but unlike under Justin Trudeau, the Liberals appear less willing to find dance partners to pass bills. The NDP said its offers for changes to the budget to win their support were rejected by the Liberals, and the Bloc Quebecois’ public demands were also dismissed.

The Liberals were only able to survive the budget vote thanks to abstentions from the NDP and Conservative ranks.

O’Brien, a principal and founding partner with Barrack Hill Public Affairs, said Carney has shown little appetite to work with opposition parties but warned it’s a risky gamble without having a majority government.

“I think Carney was elected with a vision… for the country. He knows what he wants to do, he knows how he wants to steer the ship, and he’s put us in that direction. He’s going full throttle and he’s really not going to allow parliamentary considerations to derail him from his goal, which may be the right thing to do in order to achieve those big objectives,” she said.

“But it’s a dangerous thing to do when you do not have a majority government. And I think we saw that around the fall [budget] and his unwillingness to sort of horse trade or in any way compromise his vision for the sake of sort of parliamentary peace.”

There’s rampant speculation the Liberals are ramping up efforts to attract more floor-crossers that would put them across the majority threshold. If that were to happen, the prime minister could prorogue Parliament and use the reset to give the Liberals a majority on all committees, clearing an easier path for legislation.

There’s also speculation the prime minister is holding off on accepting new defectors until after Poilievre’s leadership review in hopes of keeping the Conservative leader at the helm. Most polls show Carney comfortably leading Poilievre in the preferred prime minister question.

And then there’s the question of an early election and whether engineering a majority through floor-crossings would undermine the rationale for the Liberals to return to the polls early to take advantage of Carney’s popularity.

In any case, O’Brien said Carney doesn’t appear to be “afraid of an election,” pointing out that he’s already shown a willingness to take “bold steps” in his efforts to shape the country’s future, including signing controversial agreements with Alberta for a pipeline and China on electric vehicles and agri-food products.

“He’s moving confident , and he’s not going to water that down or compromise his vision in order to prevent an election,” she said.

“He’s going forward with his vision. He’s going to stand behind that vision, and he will take that vision to the voters.”

That’s not to say O’Brien thinks Carney will move for an early election to take advantage of the opposition parties.

Not only are the Conservatives holding a leadership review later this month but the NDP is set to hold a leadership election in March.

She said she doesn’t believe there will be an election in the spring because it’s not something Canadians would tolerate considering “what’s happening in the world.”

“We look particularly to what’s happening south of the border and and the chaos and division. And I think most Canadians say we don’t want that right now. We want predictability. We want that in our markets. We want that in our society. And we want that sort of trusted hand to steer the ship,” O’Brien said.

Welcome back to Adjournment Proceedings, our weekly long read series. We typically publish a new edition every Friday morning, though we’ve once again decided to release this week’s story a day earlier.

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