UConn coach Dan Hurley may not have many fans who aren’t Huskies supporters, but UConn has won two of the last three national championships and is the No. 2 seed in the East Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. Picking UConn to lose early is a risky 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket strategy, but it could be a rewarding one if Hurley’s team gets picked off by teams like No. 7 UCLA, No. 10 UCF, No. 3 Michigan State, or No. 6 Louisville in the March Madness 2026 bracket. What’s the best way to make your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks?

Picking 2026 March Madness upsets can give you a significant advantage in your 2026 March Madness picks, so which 12 over 5 or 13 over 4 selections should be included in your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks? Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Two years ago, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 9 Iowa defeats No. 8 Clemson in the first round. Iowa has completely changed its style under first-year head coach Ben McCollum, who led Drake to the Round of 32 in last year’s Big Dance. He brought six players with him to Iowa, including Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz. That move has paid dividends, with Stirtz averaging 20.0 points and 4.5 assists per game this season.

The Hawkeyes play at the eighth-slowest adjusted tempo in college basketball, according to KenPom. They are facing a Clemson team that does not have anyone scoring 12 points per game, and second-leading scorer Carter Welling tore his ACL in the ACC Tournament. The Tigers lost to No. 12 seed McNeese State in the Round of 64 last season, and they are in line for another first-round exit this year.  

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M knocks off No. 7 Saint Mary’s. Neither team is coming off a conference tournament championship, but Saint Mary’s had a surprising exit, failing to even make its tournament final after being upset by Santa Clara, 76-71, in the WCC semifinals. The Aggies lost their conference opener to Oklahoma by 20 points; however, the SEC sent 10 teams to the NCAA Tournament. Texas A&M still managed to go 11-7 in the conference and 21-11 overall, showing the ability to compete with and defeat the best.

The Aggies average over 10 points per game more than Saint Mary’s this season (87.7 ppg vs. 77.6 ppg), and the Gaels may struggle to keep up with that scoring pace. Texas A&M has six players averaging more than 10 points per game this season, whereas Saint Mary’s doesn’t have that same depth. The model thinks the Aggies’ offensive ability may be too much for Saint Mary’s to keep up with, projecting the 10 over 7 upset here. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.

How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.