Even before Selection Sunday hit, there wasn’t much of a question as to who was going to be at the top of the NCAA tournament bracket on the women’s side.
But that doesn’t mean that the committee was perfect the entire way through on Sunday. There’s still plenty that could have been tweaked, from which No. 1 seeds get to play where, to how other conference champions were seeded and more.
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Here’s a closer look at what the committee got right and wrong this season.
What the committee got wrong: Giving South Carolina the easiest path
South Carolina has been to the Final Four five straight times. The Gamecocks this season don’t appear to be any less capable of pushing that to six.
But the selection committee did them a huge favor in this year’s NCAA tournament. Of the top seeds, the Gamecocks have the easiest path to the Final Four.
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South Carolina was thrown into a region in which its biggest obstacle to reaching Phoenix might be the cross-country flight it will have to endure in the second weekend of the tournament, assuming it gets there. Iowa is the No. 2 seed sitting opposite of the Gamecocks. While the Hawkeyes have largely held their own in the Big Ten, and they’ve been to the Final Four in three of the past five outings, this group appears to have a ceiling. They couldn’t even come close to stalling UCLA in the Big Ten title game last week, and don’t match up well with the Gamecocks on paper.
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Then there’s No. 3 TCU and No. 4 Oklahoma. While Olivia Miles is one of the better players in the country, the Horned Frogs have several bad losses and have only gone 4-3 against Quad 1 opponents this season. Oklahoma, while having already beaten South Carolina in overtime back in January, then lost multiple times to top 10 opponents the rest of the way.
Comparatively, Texas has both Michigan and Louisville in its bracket. Both, despite early conference tournament exits, are capable of an upset win or two. A very talented Vanderbilt team, and Hannah Hidalgo and Notre Dame, are in UConn’s region. UCLA has Duke, fresh off its ACC tournament title, and Kim Mulkey and LSU to deal with. The Tigers are fifth in the NET rankings, just behind Texas, after going 27-5. While they lost twice to South Carolina, both of those games were within single digits.
We might end up with all four No. 1 teams in the Final Four again. But South Carolina, despite being the last team in, has the advantage here.
What the committee got right: Sending Texas to Fort Worth
Even though the region isn’t as straightforward as what South Carolina has, Texas earned the right to to play at home.
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The Longhorns went 31-3 and absolutely rolled over the Gamecocks in the SEC title game last week in a huge statement win after the top two teams in that league split their previous matchups by just a combined five points. Both were going to get a No. 1 seed in the tournament regardless, the dominant win was enough to push Texas into the Fort Worth region.
That means that, after their first two rounds on their home floor, the Longhorns will only have to travel roughly 200 miles north to Fort Worth for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds should they advance. There’s no time change or extensive travel plans needed, and plenty of Texas fans will already be in the area. Comparatively, the loss is going to force South Carolina to have to travel three time zones and more than 2,200 miles, should it advance.
Now, Texas’ success isn’t guaranteed. But having potentially four games ahead in their home state could make all the difference in the Longhorns’ quest to make it back to the Final Four. It sounds simple, and maybe it is, but the committee clearly rewarded Texas here.
What the committee got wrong: Duke, not Michigan, should have been a No. 2 seed
This one may feel minimal, but the Blue Devils earned a No. 2 seed this season and should have gotten a better draw.
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Duke went 24-8 this season and will host Charleston in the first round of the tournament this week as the No. 3 seed. While its opening pod isn’t too tough on paper, LSU is potentially waiting for the Blue Devils down the road before any potential Final Four appearance. The Tigers, while beatable, are a team one would simply prefer to avoid, if possible.
Duke more than earned its spot in the tournament after a 24-8 campaign in which it won the ACC tournament and regular season titles. The Blue Devils went 16-2 in league play, and finished the year at No. 8 in the NET rankings.
Michigan had a pretty similar season on paper. The Wolverines went 25-6 and finished in second in the Big Ten regular season. They are at No. 6 in the NET rankings with a 9-6 record against Quad 1 teams, one better than Duke. The Wolverines earned the No. 2 seed in Region 3, and will open against Holy Cross on Friday. Texas is the No. 1 team waiting for them on the other side of that bracket and Louisville as a potential Sweet 16 matchup.
The key difference here, though, is how the two teams finished. Michigan suffered two bad losses down the stretch, first at Iowa in what was a nearly 20-point blowout and then again to the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten tournament semifinals. The Blue Devils, remember, won their conference tournament and split with rival North Carolina. There was a bad late loss at Clemson in there, too, but the ACC tournament championship should have negated that.
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While a Louisville-Duke ACC matchup early in the tournament may not be something the committee wants, the Blue Devils would have gotten an easier path had they been rewarded with the No. 2 seed. A conference title should have pushed them over that hump.
Duke earned a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament despite winning its conference tournament and regular season title. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
(Kevin C. Cox via Getty Images)
What the committee got right: Letting Tennessee in
This one is very easy. Tennessee, despite a very rough run throughout the SEC, deserved to make it into the tournament.
The Vols went just 16-13 this season and ended up losing seven straight to end the year. They’ve actually only won twice since the end of January, and only went 5-11 against Quad 1 opponents. But after going through the gauntlet that was the SEC, the committee opted to still put the slumping Vols into the tournament.
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Tennessee claimed a No. 10 seed, and will take on No. 7 NC State in the first round. Tennessee is actually higher than the Wolfpack in the NET rankings despite losing in their head-to-head matchup in the first game of the season.
It’s hard to put much faith in the Vols, considering how they’ve been playing in recent weeks. They fell apart at perhaps the worst time of the season, and will now have to try and rebound in Ann Arbor with Michigan likely waiting for them in the second round. The first two games are about as difficult as they possibly could be.
But Tennessee has never missed an NCAA tournament in program history. And, despite everything, this wasn’t the season to break that streak.









