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AP Møller-Maersk said it could make its first operating loss in a decade this year as overcapacity in the container shipping line and the gradual reopening of transport through the Red Sea push down freight rates.

The world’s second-largest container shipping line said that it expected container demand — a proxy for global trade — to remain healthy with growth in 2026 of 2-4 per cent.

But a slew of new vessels ordered during the boom times following the Covid-19 pandemic and shorter journey times through the Red Sea means that the Danish group is forecasting a potential operating loss of up to $1.5bn this year. Its guidance includes a range up to an operating profit of $1bn.

“The conjunction of a cycle normalisation, plus the return to Suez in 2026, could put quite some pressure on the shipping division for a while as the industry deals with temporary overcapacity,” chief executive Vincent Clerc told the FT.

Maersk is viewed as a bellwether for global trade as it transports about a fifth of all seaborne freight. Clerc said the impact from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs had been less than expected as global supply chains proved resilient.

But the container shipping industry is facing its toughest period in at least a decade. Companies such as MSC, Maersk and CMA-CGM enjoyed a bumper performance in 2021 and 2022 as profits surged following the initial stage of the pandemic, leading many shipping groups to order scores of new vessels.

Many of those vessels are now being delivered, leading to a surge in capacity just as container ships are starting to travel through the Red Sea and Suez Canal again rather than round the much longer Cape of Good Hope route below South Africa.

Clerc said that the return to Suez would be a “complicated redeployment” for the industry as Maersk’s ships currently need a military escort. The Danish group has already announced that two smaller services would start using the Red Sea route again, and Clerc said two more were about to be announced.

A full return to the Red Sea is not possible using military escorts as there are not a sufficient number of them, according to Maersk’s chief executive.

But Clerc added that if the Gaza peace process continued “as we expect . . . I think at some point during the year” Maersk would be able to make a “full return”.

His comments came as Maersk reported a 7 per cent fall in revenues last year to $35bn while operating profit fell by nearly a half to $3.5bn. Its container shipping business made an operating loss of $153mn in the final quarter of 2025.

Clerc said he was happy that its port terminals and logistics businesses could “cushion” the group’s forecast with both making profits in the fourth quarter.

Maersk last made an annual operating loss in 2016, the company said.