EXPLAINER

On the sixth day of US-Israeli offensive against Iran, the conflict is escalating while regional tensions are rising.

On the sixth day of the United States-Israeli offensive against Iran, the situation is escalating inside Iran while regional tensions are intensifying across the Gulf, Lebanon and Iraq.

Iran has threatened global shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and fighting is spreading across multiple fronts in the Middle East. Further afield, a US submarine has sunk an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka.

In Iran

• Death toll: According to Iranian state media, the death toll from five days of US-Israeli attacks has reached 1,045, with more than 6,000 people wounded.

• Next supreme leader: Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has emerged as a leading contender to take up the country’s top post after years spent cultivating influence within the establishment and forging close ties with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
• Civilian infrastructure: Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused the US and Israel of strikes on 33 civilian sites across the country. These locations reportedly include hospitals, schools, residential areas, the Tehran Grand Bazaar and the historic Golestan Palace complex.
• US submarine sinks Iranian warship: On Wednesday, a US submarine fired a torpedo and sank the Iris Dena, an Iranian frigate, in the Indian Ocean off the south coast of Sri Lanka, expanding the warzone. Sri Lanka’s navy said it had recovered 87 bodies and rescued 32 people.
• Kurdish ground offensive: There are growing signs that Kurdish-Iranian armed groups have launched a ground offensive in northwest Iran against the Islamic government.
• Iraqi Kurds possibly joining conflict: US officials have reportedly asked Iraqi Kurds to assist in cross-border military operations, and Kurdish forces in northern Iraq are currently said to be on “standby” to join the conflict against Iran.
• Strait of Hormuz: On Wednesday, the IRGC announced the closure of the strait, where Iranian threats to attack ships have brought maritime activity to a virtual standstill.
• Spain’s refusal to join: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian commended Spain for refusing to allow the US to use its bases for the war. US President Donald Trump threatened to cut off all trade with Spain.

In Gulf nations

• Retaliatory strikes: Iran’s counterstrikes are disrupting oil flows across the Middle East.
• Saudi Arabia: The US secretary of state and the Saudi foreign minister discussed “the continued threats the Iranian regime poses to regional stability”, and the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned an Iranian drone attack on the US embassy in Riyadh on Tuesday.
• Qatar: The Qatari government is evacuating residents who live near the US Embassy in Doha. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior stated this is a “temporary precautionary measure”.
• Diplomatic pushback: Qatar’s foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, reached out to his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, for the first time since the conflict began.
• Sheikh Mohammed demanded an “immediate halt” to the strikes and said Iran was trying to drag neighbouring countries into a war that is not theirs.
• Kuwait tanker explosion: An explosion was reported near a tanker anchored approximately 30 nautical miles (equivalent to about 56km) southeast of Kuwait’s Mubarak al-Kabeer.
• Support from Ukraine: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with officials in Qatar and other Gulf nations about plans to deploy Ukrainian experts to the region to help defend against Iranian drone and missile attacks.

In Israel

• Intensifying strikes: Israel’s military has announced a new “wave of strikes” against military infrastructure in Tehran.
• Military success: US and Western officials stated that the US and Israel have successfully destroyed a significant portion of Iran’s military capabilities. With air supremacy achieved, they said, Israeli and US jets are able to fly uncontested over Iranian territory.
• Domestic impact: The Israeli military has slightly relaxed wartime safety rules, shifting from “essential” to “limited” activities.

In the US

• Congress and War Powers: On Wednesday, the US Senate voted 53-47 against requiring the Trump administration to obtain Congressional approval to continue the war with Iran, halting a bipartisan War Powers resolution.
• Public opinion: Public support for the war appears to be low. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, only about 25 percent of respondents supported the US-Israeli attacks, while 43 percent disapproved.
• The administration’s stance: The White House has strongly defended the military action. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the administration’s goals are to eliminate Iran’s nuclear ambitions and destroy its navy.
• President Trump himself claimed that Iran was close to obtaining a nuclear weapon, stating, “If we didn’t hit within two weeks, they would’ve had a nuclear weapon.”

In Lebanon, Iraq, Turkiye, China

• Lebanon conflict: The situation is escalating in Lebanon, with Israel attacking areas including Beirut and Khiam, and exchanging heavy fire with Hezbollah.
• Iraq: A drone hit a building near Erbil airport, and Kurdish forces in northern Iraq are reportedly on “standby” for a potential cross-border operation into Iran.
• Missile interception: NATO air defences in the eastern Mediterranean intercepted and shot down an Iranian ballistic missile that had entered Turkiye’s airspace. “This was a deliberate attempt by the Iranian military to shoot out of their country, into a country that is not directly associated with the Gulf,” Mark Kimmitt, a retired US general, told Al Jazeera.
• China: China’s foreign minister called for an “immediate cessation” of the US and Israeli action in a phone call with his Israeli counterpart, the ministry said.