For some while I have wondered what would happen if the U.S. military sought to assist Mexico in taking out one of the top drug lords.  I suppose now we are finding out.  A few points:

1. There is a good chance a few more drug lords will be hit.  It makes no sense to get involved just to take out one guy (supply is elastic!).  Sheinbaum is doing this, so it is not just the oddities of Trumpland at work here.  Presumaby the goal is to shift the entire equilibrium.

2. The cartels would do better to lay low for a while, rather than making this a big public issue.  The virulence of their response indicates they are probably pretty scared.  Of course the actual decisions here are being taken by (threatened) individuals, not by the (persisting) “cartels.”

3. “Cartels” is an overused word here.  They are more like loose syndicates, and by no means are they always colluding with each other.

4. Perhaps there is a new “Trump doctrine,” namely to focus on going after lead individuals, rather than governments or institutional structures.  We already did that in Venezuela, and there is talk of that being the approach in Iran.  If so, that is a change in the nature of warfare, and of course others may copy it too, including against us.  Is there a chance they have tried already?

5. With this action, which seems to have U.S: involvement at least on the intelligence side (possibly more), we are also sending a message to Iran.

6. I believe my post from this morning is holding up pretty well.  What the U.S. is supplying here is “more decisive action,” rather than some new, detailed understanding of the Mexican dilemma.  See also my Free Press Latin America column from October.

7. In its most extreme instantiation, today’s action represents a willingness of the U.S. to get involved in a Mexican civil war of sorts.  I do not expect matters to take that path, as the last time U.S. troops had direct involvement in Mexico was 1916-1919.  “Convergence to some warning shots” is a more likely equilibrium outcome here.  Nonetheless such an escalatory scenario is not off the table, do note that American foreign policy has been returning to much earlier eras in a number of regards.

8. This story is not over.