He is playing in the current Candidates tournament as the lowest-rated player, a mere 2693.  It is considered a semi-miracle that he qualified at all, and he is not given much chance of winning the tourney.

And yet a path to the top remains.

First, he has not lost any of his first four games (all are draws), so he is hardly a weakie.

Second, and for my purposes more importantly, the tournament has winner-take-all rewards.  So many players will be taking chances to try to move into the lead.  Yet in chess positive expected value big chances are hard to come by, so often players, in their determination to top the standings, will take modestly negative expected value big chances, especially in the opening phase of the game.

Now, if you are willing to take a negative expected value big chance, will you prefer to do so against the top players in the tourney, such as Caruana, or the lower-rated players, such as Blübaum?  The answer is obvious.

So he will have his chances.