Good morning.

Donald Trump’s decision on whether to order airstrikes against Iran will depend partly on the judgment of Trump’s special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about whether Tehran is stalling over a deal to relinquish its nuclear capacity, according to people familiar with the matter.

The president has not made a final decision on any strikes. The administration is preparing for Iran to send its latest proposal this week, ahead of what officials have described as a last-ditch round of negotiations, led by Witkoff and Kushner, scheduled for Thursday in Geneva.

• What will happen if there’s no deal? Trump has told advisers he is considering limited strikes to put pressure on Iran and, failing that, a far larger attack to force regime change.

• What has Iran said about how it might respond? Iran has vowed to retaliate as hard as possible to any US attack, and its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned last week that he had the ability to sink a US warship.

Donald Trump’s new 10% global tariff comes into effect

Donald Trump’s new tariffs have come into force globally at 10%, though he had threatened a higher rate of 15% over the weekend.

After the president suffered a defeat at the hands of the supreme court on Friday, which declared his sweeping “liberation day” tariffs imposed last year illegal, he angrily reacted by announcing a 10% global tariff. It is being imposed on imports for 150 days.

Following the supreme court decision, three Senate Democrats are demanding that the government starts refunding roughly $175bn in tariff revenues. FedEx is seeking a refund from the tariffs deemed illegal, and it sued the US government on Monday.

• What about the 15% tariff? The uplift to 15% announced by Trump on social media on Saturday has not yet been implemented – but could come at any time.

• Want the latest business news? Follow along on our liveblog.

Mexican drug cartel boss ‘El Mencho’ tracked through romantic partner

Mexican authorities located and killed “El Mencho”, one of the world’s most wanted drug traffickers, by following a romantic partner to his safe house, the country’s defense secretary has revealed.

Speaking at a press conference, officials shared details about the raid on Sunday, which triggered a wave of retaliatory violence by cartel gunmen, practically shutting down entire swathes of western Mexico.

The 59-year-old cartel leader, whose real name is Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, was fatally injured as the Mexican military attempted to capture him in the operation, which was supported by intelligence from Washington.

In other news …

• Donald Trump will deliver the first State of the Union address of his second presidency on Tuesday to a deeply polarized country where most voters disapprove of his handling of immigration, the economy and foreign policy.

• European leaders have accused Hungary of undermining support for Ukraine, after Budapest blocked fresh sanctions against Moscow on the eve of the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• A man detonated an explosive device beside a police car in central Moscow early on Tuesday, killing one officer and wounding two others, the Russian interior ministry said.

• The actor Robert Carradine, who was known for his roles in Revenge of the Nerds and Lizzie McGuire, has died aged 71, his family said in a statement.

Stat of the day: 55% of US adults feel that Trump is changing the country for the worse

Most American adults think Donald Trump is changing United States for the worse during his second presidency, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released the day before his State of the Union speech. More than half – 55% – of US adults feel the country is moving in the wrong direction, a 13-point increase from around the same time of his first presidency.

Culture pick: John Oliver on Elon Musk’s X: ‘Now worse than useless’

On the latest episode of Last Week Tonight, John Oliver straight away jumped into the Epstein files after the arrest of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor. The former Prince Andrew was arrested on allegations that that he had shared confidential material with Epstein while serving as a UK trade envoy. Oliver also tore into Elon Musk and X, lambasting the platform as “a sewer of misinformation” which, he said, the Trump administration was worryingly dependent on.

Don’t miss this: The babies and children swept up in Fiji’s HIV nightmare

Fiji is home to the world’s fastest-growing HIV epidemic: new cases more than tripled between 2023 and 2024. Amid a decline in global aid, more than 1,200 people were diagnosed in the first six months of 2025 alone. Michelle Duff reports from Suva on the factors driving the epidemic, which include escalating local methamphetamine use and a lack of access to clean needles – and how families and young people are being affected.

Climate check: ‘Tinderbox’ UK may be one shock away from food riots, experts say

Chronic issues have left the UK’s food system in a “tinderbox” state, with any further shock risking social unrest and even food riots, dozens of top food experts have warned. The system has already been left vulnerable by the climate crisis, low incomes, poor farming policy and fragile supply chains. A major extreme weather event, a cyber-attack or a fresh international conflict are among the scenarios that experts warn could spark chaos.

Tickets for BTS’s comeback concert in central Seoul sold out almost immediately on Monday night, with authorities expecting an estimated 260,000 fans to descend for the K-pop group’s first concert in nearly four years. Fans even flocked to internet cafes to use the venues’ faster connections to gain an edge over the competition.

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