Fantasy Baseball: Kyle Tucker with the Dodgers is a slam-dunk first-rounder again



We’re beyond parody now. It’s no longer hyperbole to say it. There’s no point in trying to justify the fit or rationalize the dollar amount. Quite simply, the Dodgers will get whomever they want.

The best player on the market? Just assume he’s theirs. Because if he’s really the best player, they’ll want him.

The market for Kyle Tucker had begun to percolate in recent days, with the decision seemingly coming down to whether he’d take a shorter deal with a higher average annual value from the Mets or a longer deal with a lower average annual value from the Blue Jays. But in swooped the Dodgers with a four-year, $240 million deal that was probably the best of both worlds.

Like it was ever going any other way.

If anyone is going to make $60 million a year (with large amounts deferred, most likely), it probably shouldn’t be Kyle Tucker, great as he is. But as Dodgers President Andrew Friedman once said and has now fully embodied, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you’ll finish third on every free agent.” Tucker was the best hitter available this offseason, and they paid what it took to get him. Now, imagine the prospect package they could offer for Tarik Skubal.

If you’re sensing that I’m frustrated, good. It means I’m writing well. Conveying feelings through tone and style is what it’s all about. But what does it say that I have those feelings, as a (mostly) impartial observer who (mostly) observes baseball through a Fantasy Baseball lens? Shouldn’t I be thrilled? Hey everybody, a first-round pick for Tucker just got easier to justify! Lineup placement! Runs and RBI! Fat stacks of cash!

But no, I’m just deflated. It’s the kind of news that makes you no longer want to get out of bed in the morning, in a metaphorical baseball sense. Like, what’s even the point of playing out this season? Better for the other teams to play sarcastically so that they can deny Dodgers the satisfaction of winning this way.

I’m not normally like this, preemptively crowning a champion in a sport that revels in the randomness of small-sample outcomes. I’m the one annoyingly reminding all the knee-jerk doomsayers that the playoffs are a crapshoot and that no acquisition can protect a team from that reality. But the two-time defending World Series champions, who have already developed a reputation for cornering the market on every big-ticket talent, just signed the top free agent for a price no other team could even approach. There comes a point where anything else that happens in the world of baseball seems futile.

And with that, I’ve said my piece. Now, deep breath … analyst hat on … and … go …

You couldn’t ask for a better spot for Kyle Tucker’s Fantasy value. Gee golly, he’s likely to hit cleanup for the league’s most star-studded lineup, with three future hall of famers consistently on base ahead of him. Dodger Stadium has turned into a great hitter’s park, too, with its low fences in the corners and gradual curve to a shallow center field. It’s not the venue where Statcast says Tucker would have hit the most home runs last year, but he would have hit 29 there vs. the 23 he actually hit, if the math is to be believed. It’s certainly a better fit for his swing than Wrigley Field, where he hit just seven of his 22 home runs last year.

Why, he may even be worth drafting in the first round again, which some of us were saying from the beginning even if the consensus disputed it. He’ll need to avoid the fractured shin and fractured hand that have limited his availability and effectiveness over the past two years, but keeping one’s bones intact generally isn’t a big ask, regardless of his propensity for injury.

So yes, the outlook for Tucker in Fantasy is rosier today than it was yesterday, but rather than dreaming about what a career season might look like and whether you can justify taking him ahead of Corbin Carroll, even, ask yourself this …

What does it say about Alex Bregman that the Dodgers didn’t sign him?





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