Factbox-Analysts reassess oil price estimates as Iran conflict disrupts markets


March 13 (Reuters) – Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, have revised their average ‌oil price forecasts for 2026 as the ‌war in Iran approached the two‑week mark on Friday.

Analysts expect oil ​prices to remain elevated in the near term as they assess the impact of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for more than ‌20% of global ⁠oil flows. However, they broadly anticipate prices stabilizing later in the year.

Brent futures and ⁠U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose to their highest since June 2022 this week, and were headed for ​more than ​10% and 7% weekly ​rises respectively. [O/R]

Iran’s new Supreme ‌Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed on Thursday to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel, amid a Middle East conflict that continues to disrupt millions of lives and rattle ‌energy and financial markets worldwide.

Price Targets

Brent WTI

Brokerage Forecasts

/Agency as ​of

2026

2027 2026 2027

Expects Brent to

Goldman March average $75/bbl

Sachs $77 12, 2026 and $71/bbl over

$71 $72 $67 the ​next three

and twelve

months,

respectively.

BMI $70 $70 $68 $68 March ​12, Expects Brent to

2026 average $67/bbl

and $69/bbl in

3Q’26 and 4Q’26,

respectively.

Citi $71 $64 $68 $61 March 11, See’s ‌Brent

2026 averaging

$75/bbl in

1Q’26, $78/bbl

in 2Q’26, and

$68/bbl in ​3Q’26

BofA $78 $65 $73 $61 March 10, Expects ​Brent to

2026 average $80/bbl

in 2Q’26, but

average $65/bbl

again in 2027 as

the pre-war

surplus

re-emerges

HSBC $80 $70 $76 $67 March 10,

2026

Macquarie – – – – March 6, Sees crude

2026 prices

potentially

rising to

$150/bbl or

above if the

Strait of ​Hormuz

remains closed

for several

weeks

UBS $72 $70 $68 $66 March ‌4, Expects prices

2026 to move towards

>$100/bbl and

into more severe

demand

destruction

territory of

$120+/bbl ​if

flows through

Hormuz remain

disrupted

(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in ​Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton)



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