The world is set to face a critical copper (HG=F) shortage, driven by a boom in AI and defense spending, according to S&P Global.

Growth in those sectors will boost global demand by 50% by 2040, but supplies are likely to miss meeting that appetite unless there is more recycling and mining, the consultancy said.

Copper has been on a powerful rally as output gravitates to the US amid concerns that President Trump’s tariffs will dry up supply. That has sparked a bidding war with Chinese industrial buyers also dependent on the metal.

Bloomberg reports:

Demand growth is accelerating just as mine supply faces structural limits, raising the risk that copper becomes a bottleneck for economic growth and technological expansion, S&P Global wrote Thursday in a report backed by the mining industry.

Demand from AI, data centers and global defense spending could roughly triple by 2040, adding 4 million tons of consumption combined, the study found.

… S&P Global sees global copper demand rising 50% from today’s levels to 42 million metric tons by 2040. While traditional sources such as construction, appliances, transportation and power generation continue to account for most copper demand, the biggest share of growth is coming from energy-transition uses including electric vehicles, renewable power, batteries and grid expansion.

Newer sources of demand are also gaining scale. Copper consumption tied to data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure is expected to surge as global installed data-center capacity increases almost fourfold by 2040.

… S&P Global also identified another potential source of demand: humanoid robots.

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