US stock futures rose early Friday as Wall Street kicked off trading in 2026 after its third consecutive year of double-digit percentage gains.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) climbed 0.2%. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) were up 0.4%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NQ=F) gained 0.7%.

Markets are coming off a sputtering end to a roller-coaster 2025 that nevertheless ended with sizable gains for the major indexes. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose over 16%, while the Nasdaq Composite led gains with an over 20% jump.

Now the focus turns to 2026, though the year will likely begin in earnest come Monday. For stocks, the outlook calls for more optimism. Every Wall Street forecaster tracked by Bloomberg is predicting that stocks will rally for a fourth consecutive year. But plenty of risks remain: The AI boom could falter, the US economy could surprise, and President Trump, of course, remains a wild card as the fate of his most sweeping tariffs could become clearer this month.

Wall Street’s bid for a “Santa Claus rally” — during the last five trading days of December and first two of January — has so far sputtered. The S&P 500 is down nearly 1% in the period, with investors looking at a third consecutive down “Santa” period.

Among the top items on Wall Street’s 2026 list is the Federal Reserve, where the divisions that have gripped the central bank in 2025 look likely to continue this year. President Trump has promised this month to appoint a new chair to replace Jerome Powell. For now, most traders expect the central bank to hold steady on interest rates later this month, though bets are more split for March’s meeting.

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