Welcome to Economic Insights, a twice-weekly newsletter focusing on major projects and the Canadian economy at large.

Stories we are following:

• The CANADA INDIGENOUS LOAN GUARANTEE PROGRAM (CILGP) is announcing a second transaction since launching in 2024. The federal corporation is backing a 20 per cent equity stake for AAMJIWNAANG and KETTLE AND STONY POINT First Nations in the Chatham to Lakeshore transmission line.
• Expert witnesses warned a House of Commons committee on Monday that CANADA’s inability to process its own critical minerals is a glaring vulnerability for national defence.

The sovereignty gap

Vast reserves of critical minerals mean little for sovereignty without domestic capacity to process and refine them. That’s one of the main messages relayed by experts from different sectors in a House committee study on critical minerals and national defence.

• The issue: Industry experts, including VALE METALS VP JEFF GAULIN, emphasize that “having minerals in the ground does not secure our future; only producing them does.” Currently, Canada remains a primary exporter of raw ores while importing refined products.
• Bad economics: GAULIN says his company mined 80,000 tonnes of nickel last year, but had to import 16,000 to make its refineries operate efficiently.

“Think on that: We had to import nickel to Sudbury, home to the second-largest nickel sulfide deposit in the world,” he said.

• The “Abdication”: Businessman and former Research In Motion co-CEO JIM BALSILLIE called the lack of domestic processing an “abdication” of national responsibility that “no other country has done.”
• Pushback: At PDAC last week, Natural Resources Minister TIM HODGSON said critical mineral supply chains are a matter of national security, and partnerships with allies will lead to $12.1 billion in spending on mining and processing projects in Canada.

By the numbers:

400: the amount of megawatts the Chatham to Lakeshore transmission line adds to the grid, enough to power the entire City of Windsor.

31: The number of critical mineral processing facilities in Canada. There are 28 more at an advanced stage, according to the latest update to the federal Critical Minerals Strategy.

$10 billion: The current total capacity of the CANADA INDIGENOUS LOAN GUARANTEE PROGRAM.

Major projects watch

— ALBERTA Premier DANIELLE SMITH says she believes foreign investment will play a role in a new oil pipeline, or in boosting production to fill it, reports the Financial Post.

— Gas up! Several analysts say the price of gas could continue to climb throughout the week. Good news for CANADA, given it’s a major oil producer? Maybe. The gains are unevenly distributed across sectors and provinces, writes associate professor SUBHADIP GHOSH.

— What will it take to fast track the Sisson mine? Money, says NEW BRUNSWICK Premier SUSAN HOLT in an interview with the Telegraph Journal. Proponent NORTHCLIFF RESOURCES plans on making a final investment decision in 2027.

— Le Devoir is reporting that OTTAWA is working behind the scenes to assist MARINVEST ENERGY in its proposal to build a massive LNG project in Baie-Comeau, Quebec, with an eye to European markets.

— Natural Resources Canada’s associate deputy minister JEFF LABONTE says there’s now over 75 people working full-time in Calgary for the MAJOR PROJECTS OFFICE. 

— Culture Minister MARC MILLER, speaking about the Cowichan decision with reporters on the Hill Tuesday, said: “a lot of these opportunistic political types are weaponizing a story about successive governments…not recognizing Cowichan rights, who are one of the more oppressed Indigenous groups in BC.”

Headlines: