Good evening, readers.

We start today’s brief with a look at the latest floor-crossing on the Hill and what it means for the parliamentary math.

As you probably all know, Nunavut MP Lori Idlout’s decision to quit the NDP caucus to join the Liberals puts Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government just two seats short of a majority ahead of three crucial byelections set for April 13.

Sweeping all three byelections would give Carney a thin majority, bolstering his ability to push his political agenda forward and making it harder for the opposition to throw up roadblocks.

The Liberals sit at 170 seats, while the Conservatives have 141, the Bloc has 22, the NDP has six and the Greens have just one MP.

Two Toronto-area byelections were triggered by the resignations of former cabinet ministers Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair. Both of those ridings are seen as safe seats for the Liberals.

A crucial third byelection has been ordered for the Montreal-area riding of Terrebonne after the Liberals’ one-vote win there was annulled by the Supreme Court last month.

Winning just two out three would give the Liberals a 172-seat majority, but the government still would likely rely on opposition support to pass legislation.

The three byelections will happen a day after the Liberal party convention in Montreal, which is close to the hotly contested Terrebonne riding.

The Canadian Press has this one.

What does this all mean logistically?

Well, if the Liberals got to 172 that would give them a majority but prevent them from altering House of Commons standing orders to change the makeup of committees — which are currently designed for a minority Parliament where the opposition controls the agenda.

Without that change, opposition MPs could still undermine government legislation at committee — even if Parliament is prorogued to reset the session.

To force a change to the committees’ makeup, the Liberals would need at least 173 Liberal MPs since the House Speaker — himself a Liberal MP — would not cast a vote in this instance and likely would not support time allocation to curtail debate.

Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia only votes in the event of a tie. The Speaker is expected to maintain the status quo and act as an impartial figure.

The Speaker traditionally does not vote to pass new legislation but sides with the government on confidence votes.

That means a win in Terrebonne — which was decided by one vote last spring — is so crucial for the Liberals.

Shifting gears ever so slightly, let’s talk about the reaction to the move on the Hill.

Idlout said she decided to cross the floor after receiving feedback from constituents and her family telling her that this is a “crucial moment” for both the territory and the country.

“With new threats against our sovereignty and pressures on the well-being of people throughout the North, we need a strong and ambitious government that makes decisions with Nunavut — not only about Nunavut,” she said in a written statement issued by the Liberal party.

Carney welcomed his newest Liberal MP before caucus Wednesday, calling her “one of Canada’s greatest constituency MPs” and pointing out that she represents an enormous riding.

“We’ve had conversations about what we can do both large and small in Nunavut, large projects, but also helping everyone get ahead,” Carney said standing next to Idlout outside the Liberal caucus room.

Interim NDP leader Don Davies beat the Liberals to the punch when he announced the news of Idlout’s defection on Tuesday night. He said the now six-member caucus is “very disappointed” by her decision.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said in a social media post Wednesday that Carney is “using back room deals to seize a costly majority that voters rejected.”

Several Conservative MPs on their way into a caucus meeting Wednesday simply shrugged when asked for their thoughts on the latest floor-crossing.

“Looks like that’s their game plan,” Saskatchewan MP Kevin Waugh said.

Liberal MP Karina Gould said on her way into Wednesday morning’s Liberal caucus meeting that it’s “extraordinary” to see so many floor-crossers during a session of Parliament.

She said it indicates the Liberals are a “big tent” party that draws support from both the left and right sides of the political spectrum.

Meanwhile, there’s a new episode of iPolitics’ No Talking Points podcast.

Hosts Marco Vigliotti and Brian Storseth are joined by Navigator’s Bahoz Dara Aziz, iPolitics reporter Aya Dufour, and QP Briefing reporter Barbara Patrocinio to discuss the political forces shaping Canada’s next election cycle, including upcoming federal byelections.

In Other Headlines

Internationally

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced member nations would release a total of 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves of oil, as the war in Iran continues to cause the worst disruption to energy markets in decades on Wednesday.

The unanimous decision by the members of the IEA, which represents some of the world’s biggest oil-consuming nations, is meant to address the acute disruption in oil trade caused by the war. It’s the largest release of crude oil the IEA has ever coordinated, and only the sixth time the group has released oil to balance crude markets.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Wednesday that the decision by IEA members, who together control some 1.8 billion barrels of stockpiled oil, is a “major action” meant to alleviate the disruption of oil markets.

“But to be clear, the most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

Details about the timing and the amounts of oil each country will contribute have not yet been announced.

NPR has more. 

Lebanon faces “a moment of grave peril” as Israel continues to launch deadly attacks across the country, forcibly displacing hundreds of thousands of people, the United Nations humanitarian chief has warned.

Speaking to the UN Security Council in New York on Wednesday, Tom Fletcher said “mass displacement is accelerating” across Lebanon as a result of the Israeli attacks, with more than 750,000 people now registered as displaced.

“We’re seeing large-scale movements into densely populated urban areas where shelter capacity is already overstretched,” Fletcher said.

“More than 120,000 people, including thousands of children, are now in 580 collective centres … These sites are overcrowded, with inadequate sanitation [and] insufficient essential supplies,” he told the council.

“These conditions heighten risk of harassment, sexual violence, exploitation, abuse [and] trafficking, particularly of course for women and girls.”

Israel began carrying out intensified attacks on Lebanon last week after Hezbollah launched rockets towards Israeli territory following the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli attacks on February 28.

Al Jazeera’s got this one. 

In Other International Headlines

The Kicker

After yesterday’s beautiful spring weather, we are back to our regularly scheduled frigid March programming.

At least Team Canada’s men’s baseball squad is still swinging in a much warmer San Juan at the World Baseball Classic, after beating Puerto Rico on Tuesday.

The team faces Cuba Wednesday afternoon, and if all goes well, Canada advances to the quarterfinals.