Canada’s airlines are sending a clear signal to the United States with their schedules. When it comes to where their aircraft are flying, Mexico is getting more routes, more seats, and more frequencies, while the US transborder market is being trimmed, suspended, or in one case, totally abandoned. This isn’t just a seasonal tweak for snowbirds. It’s a capacity reallocation that lines up with shifting demand, shifting economics, and — yes — shifting politics.

The transition began a year ago when the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canada, prompting Canadians to significantly cut trips to the US. But as ties between the two nations have remained frayed, the Canadian carriers are performing a remarkable shift of capacity away from the US and towards Mexico. This was further reinforced today as the nation’s flag carrier announced more capacity to Mexico amidst a drop in US flights, stating the changes are supporting “Canada’s trade diversification.”

Air Canada’s Mexico Moves Aren’t Subtle

Credit: Air Canada

Air Canada didn’t bury the lede with this morning’s announcement. It is adding 18% more seat capacity to Mexico this summer versus last summer, calling the move a strategic expansion and explicitly tying it to Canada–Mexico ties and trade diversification.

The headline is a new route from Montréal–Trudeau International Airport to Guadalajara International Airport, positioned as a year-round nonstop flight. That schedule matters: year-round service is the difference between a one-season toe-dip and a route the airline expects to sell in multiple demand cycles.

But the expansion isn’t only about launching Guadalajara. Air Canada is also adding frequencies on existing Mexico routes, the kind of quiet capacity growth that can add up fast because it’s easier to execute and easier to sell. This includes:

• Montréal–Cancún: +4 additional flights, increasing to 11 weekly.
• Toronto–Monterrey: +1 additional flight, increasing to 4 weekly.
• Vancouver–Mexico City: +4 additional flights, increasing to 11 weekly.
• Vancouver–Puerto Vallarta: +1 additional flight, increasing to 2 weekly.

Air Canada quantified the scale of its Mexico expansion by saying it’s “an 18% year-over-year boost.” But then there’s the framing. The release also included quotes from Canadian government and business leadership, explicitly linking direct air connections to trade diversification and Canada–Mexico economic ties.

Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-US Trade, Intergovernmental Affairs, and One Canadian Economy had the following to say:

“As Canada leads one of the most important Team Canada Trade Missions in Canadian history, we are focused on helping Canadian businesses reach new markets and create new partnerships. Announcements like this by Air Canada will further strengthen Canada-Mexico ties and enable our two countries to do even more business together.”

Meanwhile, Candace Laing, the president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, had the following to say:

“Canadian companies are looking to diversify trade and build new partnerships, so these direct connections with strong trade partners matter.”

In other words, Air Canada and its partners in the Canadian government are sending a message. This is not just a routine routes announcement saying “we’re adding more beach seats for summer.” Instead, it is very clearly positioning Mexico as a strategic corridor for commercial connectivity and diversification, and inevitably, this is at the expense of the US.

Mexico Is Getting Much Bigger For All Canadian Carriers

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Air Canada’s announcement fits a wider pattern: Canadian carriers are increasingly treating Mexico as a growth market at the expense of the US. Looking at data from Cirium for the first half of 2026 (1H 2026), while Canada–US scheduled capacity has fallen sharply year-over-year, capacity to Mexico has increased by a staggering 46%.

It’s not a single-airline story either. It’s a system-wide signal that aircraft are being redeployed to where bookings and yields look better. The biggest mover is WestJet, which only recently cut 11 US routes from its schedule. To balance out the ledger, it has added more than 4,500 new flights to Mexico in 1H 2026, an increase of 59% over the same period last year. This includes new routes from its base at Calgary International Airport to Guadalajara, Riviera Nayarit, Cozumel, Puerto Escondido, and Mazatlán.

Air Canada and Air Transat, while not shifting quite as sharply as WestJet, are also experiencing double-digit growth to Mexico this year. And Porter Airlines, which only started flying to Mexico recently using its Embraer 195-E2 fleet, is also adding to the mix, taking the total to more than 7,000 additional Canada-Mexico flights by Canadian carriers in 1H 2026.

What ties these together is the “shape” of the growth, as its not only about adding shiny new routes. A lot of the Mexico expansion is happening through frequency additions on already-proven corridors, plus select new city pairs that broaden options beyond the traditional resort map.

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More Mexico Means Less US, And The Cuts Are Real

Credit: Photo: sockagphoto | Shutterstock

The other half of this story is what’s being left behind. The US transborder market has been taking real schedule hits for over a year now, and the first half of this year is no different, with further reductions on the way. The data shows another 6% decrease in traffic to US destinations by Canadian carriers compared to the same time last year, essentially removing over 6,000 flights from the schedule.

But pause for a moment. This data is certainly very troubling for the US economy, where hundreds of thousands of jobs hinge on tens of billions of dollars from inbound Canadian visitors. But the data itself might be too rosy. If you reduce the aperture down to just Q1 2026, the decrease in US-bound flights by Canadian airlines has actually been even higher at 9%. There is still plenty of time left for the Canadian carriers to make further cuts to Q2 schedules, and a 9% reduction across the full first half of the year would remove a further 3,000 flights.

Once again, WestJet is the major mover, removing nearly 3,500 US-bound flights from its schedule. But Air Transat is the largest alarm bell, as it has chosen to axe all US flights from May. Even Air Canada, which historically holds the lion’s share of business travel amongst the Canadian carriers, is quietly removing more than a thousand US-bound flights.

Of course, this doesn’t mean Canada–US flying disappears. It’s still a massive aviation market, and major business routes and hub links will remain sticky. But if you’re looking for the clearest indicators in the schedules, it’s this: Canada’s carriers are putting more metal where Canadians are most eager to spend their vacation days — and that’s increasingly south of the border, just not the one the US is used to.