Bryan Brulotte: America is quietly and softly defaulting on its debt


The second mechanism is financial repression through negative real rates. When inflation exceeds borrowing costs, governments repay creditors in cheaper dollars over time. This is not inflation failure. It is inflation tolerance. Pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates even as inflation remains above target reflects this reality. If inflation runs at three per cent while policy rates settle closer to two per cent, the state benefits and savers pay the difference. To make this sustainable, demand for treasuries must be maintained. Regulation plays a central role. Banks, insurers, and pension funds are required, explicitly or implicitly, to hold government debt as risk free capital. Foreign partners are encouraged to do the same through trade and security frameworks. This is not market demand. It is mandated demand.



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