The Big Ten has been top heavy this season and the odds to win the conference tournament back that up. Michigan is the clear favorite at -105, followed by Illinois (+450), Purdue (+600) and Michigan State (+650). After those four, the other teams are all +1000 or longer to win the Big Ten’s postseason title. 

Here is a look at how to attack the Big Ten tournament with a best bet, longshot and team to avoid.

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Big Ten conference tournament odds (via FanDuel)

Best bet: Michigan (-105)

I think Michigan is actually undervalued at -105, especially considering when you look at the odds of the favorites in some of the other conferences. The Wolverines have been dominant in Big Ten play this season, losing just once to Wisconsin when the Badgers shot 46% from behind the arc.

The thing I like about Michigan is the Wolverines played their best against top competition. The Wolverines beat Michigan State twice by a combined 22 points, Illinois by 14, and Purdue by 11. Can one of those teams knock off Michigan in the Big Ten tournament? Sure, but I don’t want to bet on it. 

I believe the Wolverines could have a tougher time in the NCAA Tournament once they get away from the Big Ten because of turnovers. Michigan’s biggest issue is turning the ball over and it lost backup point guard L.J. Cason for the season with an injury. However, most teams in the Big Ten don’t pressure the ball like they do in the SEC and Big 12. 

The Wolverines have a potential semifinal matchup against Illinois. The Illini don’t match up well with Michigan, so I like the Wolverines to reach the title game and I’ll take my chances with them at -105. 

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Best value: Wisconsin (+3000)

The best value on the board in the Big Ten is Wisconsin. The Badgers have not only shown they can beat top teams, but they have done it away from home. Wisconsin owns road wins over Michigan, Illinois and Purdue this season. That’s an impressive resume. 

Wisconsin shoots a lot of threes and is led by the dynamic scoring duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. That formula gives the Badgers a puncher’s chance against any team in the Big Ten. The threes need to be falling though because defense isn’t Wisconsin’s strength. The Badgers rank 11th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and can get bullied in the paint by bigger teams.

The one negative with backing Wisconsin at +3000 is it didn’t get a great draw. The Badgers will have to likely beat both Illinois and Michigan to reach the final. While it’s a tall order, Wisconsin has shown it can upset both teams and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Badgers make a deep tournament run.

Team to avoid: Nebraska (+1000)

Nebraska is the No. 2 seed heading into the Big Ten tournament, although the Cornhuskers were playing better earlier in the year. After starting the season 20-0, Nebraska finished 6-5 with losses to Michigan, Illinois and Purdue. 

I do believe the Cornhuskers are a good team but they are slightly overvalued at +1000. Nebraska did catch a break being in the bottom half of the bracket away from Michigan and Illinois. However, I would need at least +2000 to consider backing the Cornhuskers with potential games against Purdue and Michigan State standing between them and a trip to the final. 

If you are looking for a team in the bottom half of the bracket to bet, I would rather back UCLA at +4500 than the Cornhuskers at +1000. I rate those two teams close and the Bruins just routed Nebraska by 20.