Hello and welcome to the working week.

If this is not overly stating the obvious, Asia is a very divided place and never more so than on the subject of liberal democracy. This is something that will come into sharp focus in the coming days.

As Japanese citizens digest their country’s remarkable election results, over in Hong Kong the subjugation of media tycoon and passionate campaigner for democracy Jimmy Lai will reach its climax on Monday, when he is sentenced after being found guilty of conspiring to collude with a foreign country and conspiring to publish seditious material, charges he denied.

There is a (very slim) chance, if US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer have applied pressure on this case, that Lai will get a lighter sentence, owing to health concerns, his age and the five years he has already spent in detention. But the likelihood is a life sentence, given how hard Beijing has worked to paint Lai as a key instigator of the 2019 protests that it says were stirred up by hostile foreign forces.

Bangladesh, a powerhouse for the global garment industry, will seek to restore stability and get its economy on a straight footing when it goes to the polls on Thursday. The election will be a pivotal moment after 15 years of autocratic rule by Sheikh Hasina, who was deposed almost two years ago during the student-driven “Monsoon Revolution”. 

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party has emerged as the favourite to win the election.

UK politics is, well, rather unpredictable (and definitely unscheduled) at the moment. But the Church of England’s General Synod meeting will take place, notable at the very least because it will be addressed for the first time by a woman Archbishop of Canterbury — last week’s FT Person in the News, Dame Sarah Mullally. Feathers could fly on Thursday when the Bishop of York, Stephen Cottrell, proposes a motion to curtail blessings for same-sex couples, trying, probably unsuccessfully, to draw a line under the divisive debate over the issue among members.

In the less emotive world of economic statements, we will get a better picture of the UK’s national health with the first fourth-quarter GDP estimate. The expectation is for a modest rebound compared with the previous three months. Inflation will be a theme, with updates from the US and China.

Earnings season rolls along, with the focus this week on western carmakers, a sector that is struggling to fend off Chinese competition. Full details of the other companies reporting and the conference call dates are below.

One more thing . . . 

I’m conflicted about the virtue of Valentine’s Day — I’ll leave it to you to decide if it’s a celebration of romance or commercial exploitation — but there is no doubting love will be in the air as we head towards the weekend. I will be heading with my wife to our lovely local independent cinema to catch Wuthering Heights on its general release. If you’d like the immersive experience, FT deputy books editor Marie Crawford has a guide to a mini-break on the moors.

Where is the best place for a romantic break? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply. And have an uplifting week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• UK: KPMG/REC Report on Jobs

• US: The Conference Board Employment Index

• Earnings calls: Becton Dickinson Q1, DBS Q4, Loews Q4, Obayashi Q3, ON Semiconductor Q4, Orix Q3, Plus500 FY, Porvair FY, Recruit Holdings Q3, UniCredit Q4/FY

Tuesday

• UK: Bank of England’s Q4 Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report

• US: Q4 employment cost index

• Earnings calls: AIG Q4/FY, Amentum Holdings Q1, AstraZeneca Q4/FY, Barclays FY, Bellway trading update, BP Q4/FY, Cincinnati Financial Q4/FY, Coca-Cola Q4/FY, CVS Health Q4/FY, Duke Energy Q4/FY, Dunelm HY, Ecolab Q4/FY, Ford Q4/FY, Hasbro Q4/FY, Honda Q3, Kering FY, Lyft Q4/FY, Marriott International Q4/FY, Masco Q4/FY, Mattel Q4/FY, Mazda Q3, Principal Financial Q4/FY, Spotify Q4/FY, TUI Q1, UDR Q4/FY

Wednesday

• Bank of England executive director, international, James Talbot gives a speech at the London School of Economics titled ‘How does climate change affect the achievement of the Bank of England’s statutory objectives?’

• A fireside chat with Andrew Hauser, deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, hosted by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Business Sydney business leaders’ lunch

• Opec Monthly Oil Market Report

• China: January consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Japan: National Foundation Day [Empire Day]. Financial markets closed

• US: January employment data

• Earnings calls: Ahold Delhaize Q4/FY, Albemarle Q4/FY, America Movil Q4/FY, Barratt Redrow HY, Cisco Systems Q2, Commerzbank Q4/FY, Commonwealth Bank of Australia HY, Computershare HY, CSL HY, Dassault Systemes Q4/FY, Equinix Q4/FY, EssilorLuxottica FY, Heineken FY, Hilton Worldwide Q4, James Hardie Industries Q3, Kraft Heinz Q4/FY, Mahindra & Mahindra Q3, McDonald’s Q4/FY, Michelin FY, MJ Gleeson HY, PZ Cussons FY, Randstad Q4/FY, Renishaw HY, Severn Trent Q3 trading update, Tenet Healthcare Q4/FY, Titan Q3/9M, TotalEnergies Q4/FY, T-Mobile US Q4/FY

Thursday

• FT Live runs a subscriber-only webinar at 1pm GMT, The transatlantic relationship: can Europe go it alone? Register here and send your questions. 

• IEA Oil Market Report

• UK: first December and Q4 GDP estimate

• Earnings calls: Affiliated Managers Group Q4/FY, Airbnb Q4/FY, Ameren Q4/FY, Anheuser-Busch InBev FY, Applied Materials Q1, Ashmore HY, Baxter International Q4/FY, British American Tobacco FY, Brookfield Q4/FY, Expedia Q4/FY, Hermès FY, Iron Mountain Q4/FY, Isuzu Motors Q3, KBC Q4/FY, Leggett & Platt Q4/FY, Legrand FY, L’Oréal FY, Mercedes-Benz Q4/FY, Nissan Q3, Pinterest Q4/FY, RELX FY, Rollins Q4/FY, Schroders FY, Siemens Q1, SoftBank Q3, Sun Life Financial Q4/FY, Swisscom FY, Thyssenkrupp Q1, Tripadvisor Q4/FY, Tyler Technologies Q4/FY, Unilever Q4/FY, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Q4/FY, Wynn Resorts Q4/FY

Friday

• Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill to speak at Santander macroeconomic event in London

• Speech by Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura at a meeting hosted by the Kanagawa Keizai Doyukai

• EU: Q4 GDP estimate

• US: January CPI inflation rate and real earnings data

• Earnings calls: Capgemini FY, Ingersoll Rand Q4/FY, Moderna Q4/FY, Mohawk Industries Q4/FY, NatWest FY, Yamaha FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• China: Hong Kong’s High Court is due to sentence media tycoon Jimmy Lai on two counts of conspiring to collude with a foreign power and one count of conspiring to publish seditious materials through his media group, the now-shuttered pro-democracy tabloid Apple Daily

• Saudi Arabia: The UK’s Prince William begins a three-day visit

• US: The Defense and Intelligence Space Conference, designed to strengthen the space capabilities of America and its allies, opens in the Hyatt Regency Reston, Virginia, running until Wednesday

Tuesday

Wednesday

• Barbados: parliamentary elections

• Belgium: EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Brussels to discuss defence, in particular EU support to Ukraine and co-operation in defence innovation

• US: New York Fashion Week begins

Thursday

• Bangladesh: parliamentary elections

• Belgium: the British and German governments will convene the Ukraine Defence Contact Group for a meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels

• EU: informal retreat for the bloc’s national leaders in Brussels, hosted by European Council president António Costa

• Singapore: finance minister Lawrence Wong will present this year’s budget statement in the nation-state’s parliament

• South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers the annual State of the Nation address to a joint sitting of the country’s parliament in Cape Town

• US: 2026 annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science opens in Phoenix, Arizona, running until Saturday

Friday

• Brazil: Rio Carnival opening ceremony

• Germany: 62nd Munich Security Conference begins at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof. Delegates from 50 countries will include German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other European leaders. Runs until Sunday

Saturday

• Valentine’s Day

• Vietnam: Lunar New Year celebrations begin, culminating in Tet Nguyên Đán, the most important celebration in the nation’s culture, next Tuesday

Sunday

• US: 68th Daytona 500, The Great American Race involving a 500-mile Nascar Cup Series event at Daytona Beach, Florida