Alberta is not ready to deal with the threat of online disinformation coming from foreign actors in a possible referendum campaign on separation this fall, according to national security experts.

“Alberta is excessively vulnerable to American interference,” Jean-Christophe Boucher, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, told Radio-Canada.

Boucher, whose research focuses on foreign interference, is unequivocal: “If there were a referendum in Alberta, there would be no one within the Alberta government who could analyze and collect data to ensure that the conversation about the referendum is not being manipulated by foreign actors.”

“Alberta is not ready at all. It’s almost completely unready,” adds Patrick Lennox, a former director of intelligence with the RCMP, now turned security consultant. “There is no capacity whatsoever to push back against that form of misinformation and disinformation that’s going to happen.”

Disinformation and amplifying message

According to Lennox, the interference has already started.

“Anecdotally, you can see evidence of foreign-constructed misinformation, disinformation already percolating online,” he said.

Online foreign interference can take many forms: memes, written posts, songs or infographics. They all represent examples of “narratives that are being constructed from outside of the organic Alberta domestic political process and are being imported in order to influence the discourse and the outcome of the political process,” said Lennox.

On top of posting content to influence debates on social media, foreign actors seeking to influence the outcome of a potential Alberta independence referendum could “manipulate the amplification of the message,” says Boucher.

They could, for example, create numerous fake accounts or bots to share content in support of Alberta independence, to make it seem like the movement has more momentum than is really the case.

Limited resources in the province

In Alberta, two provincial organizations are responsible for preventing foreign interference: Elections Alberta and the Provincial Security and Intelligence Office (PSIO).

Elections Alberta acknowledges that its powers are limited. 

“Beyond a single provision of ‘False statement about a candidate’ at section 160 of the Election Act, Elections Alberta has no mandate or substantive jurisdiction to combat election misinformation or dis-information,” writes Robyn Bell, a spokesperson for the agency.

The PSIO, which is under the purview of the provincial Ministry of Public Safety, has 16 employees “dedicated specifically to provincial security and intelligence analysis,” according to Sheena Campbell, the ministry’s director of communication.

Campbell says the agency “continues to monitor the overall threat environment in co-ordination with its national security partners,” without specifying if any specific steps have been taken to counter the possibility of foreign interference in the referendum.

Premier takes threat ‘very seriously’

At an unrelated press conference in Lethbridge on Monday, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith maintained that she was taking the threat of foreign interference “very seriously.”

She cited the addition of citizenship markers to driver’s licences as an example of measures taken to prevent foreign actors from interfering in Alberta’s election. 

“If we see any indication that … there is going to be interference, then we will take additional measures,” she added.

Federal agencies, such as Global Affairs Canada, CSIS and the RCMP, also have the power and capacity to monitor foreign interference. None of them would confirm targeting of the Alberta independence movement.

Given the length and the complexity of investigations related to foreign interference and online disinformation, Lennox believes that “the chances of somebody being investigated, arrested and charged during the period of a referendum campaign is zero.”

“If we’re relying on the RCMP to save us from foreign interference during a provincial referendum, it’s not gonna happen. And I would say the same for CSIS and for any kind of regulatory body, frankly,” said Lennox.

A more American threat than ever

In the past, the monitoring of foreign interference focused primarily on countries such as Russia and China, but today the eyes of the intelligence community are increasingly turning toward the United States.

“In my opinion, it is clear that there will be foreign interference from American actors, either from the administration directly or from actors close to the Trump administration,” says Boucher.

The organizers of the Stay Free Alberta petition, who are currently gathering signatures to force a referendum on Alberta’s place within Canada, have already visited Washington, D.C. on several occasions. They claim to have met with members of the U.S. administration.

Earlier this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also publicly commented on the presence of an independence movement in Alberta.

According to Boucher, American interference, whether it be overt or covert, could call into question the results of a possible referendum.

“If there are fairly clear indications of significant interference from the Trump administration, and it turns out that Albertans voted yes to separation from Canada, then clearly, what will happen next is that many actors will begin to question the legitimacy of that process,” he says.