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Airlines across the globe are growing increasingly concerned over dwindling jet fuel supplies, with some predicting that reserves could start running out in just a few weeks. The ongoing 2026 Iran Crisis has led to fuel prices almost doubling, while the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed to shipments from some of the world’s largest oil refineries.
This is set to cause severe logistical problems for airlines, particularly when flying to regions of the world where supplies are already limited. Carriers are now considering mass cancellations across their networks to avoid their aircraft being stranded in foreign countries with no fuel.
Airlines Sound The Alarm On Jet Fuel Shortages
While the skyrocketing price of jet fuel has made most of the headlines in the past few weeks, airlines are also grappling with the specter of fuel supplies running dry. As reported by The Guardian, leading global airlines are mulling over significant flight cuts as they face the prospect of flying to countries where fuel reserves are far from guaranteed. Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith recently stated that the airline group is “drawing up scenarios” on how it will deal with fuel shortages, citing airports in Southeast Asia as being at heightened risk.
This is because Southeast Asia relies more heavily on fuel transported through the Gulf region, leading to countries like Vietnam issuing warnings over fuel shortages, while Europe still has enough in reserve to supply airlines for at least the next month. This does not mean European carriers are resistant to fuel shocks, as demonstrated by Scandinavian Airlines’ (SAS) recent cancellation of around 1,000 flights in April. easyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis has also warned of an impending fuel crisis, suggesting that the situation in Europe could rapidly change in just a matter of weeks. Jarvis said,
“I’m confident for a week or two that we’re all good. I’m probably confident that we’re good for three weeks. Am I confident over four weeks? Nobody’s telling me don’t worry about it halfway into May.”
Return Flights Hazard
Although many airlines will be confident of stable fuel supplies from their home bases, the picture is not so clear at airports in foreign countries. The main concern is that aircraft will end up stuck at foreign airports, ultimately incurring significant additional costs. Longer time spent on the ground prevents an aircraft from earning revenue, while passengers booked on affected flights would need reimbursement or duty-of-care costs, such as accommodation and food.
US airlines are also exposed, having predominantly moved away from fuel hedging practices. For example, United Airlines recently revealed it would cut 5% of flights during the second and third quarters of this year, with United CEO Scott Kirby predicting the airline could face up to $11 billion more in fuel costs each year if the situation doesn’t improve.
Rival Delta Air Lines has already logged a $400 million charge due to rising fuel prices, while US airlines collectively face billions in added fuel costs this year. Even airlines that have invested considerably in fuel hedging will face rising operational costs and will be impacted by any fuel shortages at foreign airports.
This Airline Just Cut Thousands Of Flights Due To The Fuel Price Crisis
The flights cut between now and early May account for 5% of the airline’s schedule, but impact over 40,000 passengers.
The Return Of Fuel Tankering?
One strategy airlines have deployed during previous shortages is to carry extra fuel for the outbound journey, so that less fuel is needed when refueling for the return journey. This practice is known as “fuel tankering” but comes at a cost, as each aircraft is saddled with extra weight.
A heavier aircraft diminishes fuel efficiency, and in an industry with extremely thin operating margins, even small efficiency penalties can make the difference between a flight breaking even or losing money.
As United CEO Kirby recently stated, there’s “no point in burning cash” on loss-making flights. Consequently, airlines are often better off canceling a flight or suspending a route, rather than continuing to fly it at a loss.
