A few observations on process as delegates have started the NDP’s leadership convention in Winnipeg…

First, let’s note how much actually remains to be decided this weekend. 

In the two previous federal leadership elections run under a similar voting process to this one, turnout was slightly over 50% of the party’s membership. Barring a break with historical trends, we can then expect the membership count of roughly 100,000 to result in just over 50,000 votes being cast. 

Of those, plenty have already been cast online, as the candidates have encouraged supporters to vote in advance rather than waiting for the convention. And even among those who do vote, we can expect there to be some attrition as people who signed up to support a particular candidate may not rank the remaining contenders.

As a result, while there’s theoretical room for late deciders to determine the outcome, there’s also a real possibility that the result is already substantially baked in.

For anybody still waiting to cast their ballot, though, I’ll reiterate my regular take that if there’s anything to learn about the candidates at this stage, it has to do with their ability to manage the convention itself. 

I wouldn’t expect to hear anything especially surprising in terms of policies or values, and any endorsements among the candidates will be of relatively limited significance. But if any of the candidates (and particularly the front-runners) run afoul of time limits or convention logistics, that will bode poorly for their ability to manage future communications and the responsibilities of leadership. 

We’ll find out soon whether anything happens to change minds among leadership voters – and whether it makes a difference in the broader campaign. And after a difficult year, NDP activists should be looking forward to the opportunity to build a people-focused organization to challenge both the threat from the Trump regime, and its enablers among the Libs and Cons.