What We Knew

McPherson entered the leadership campaign with both the  advantage and the burden of being the first choice of the party establishment at a time when the party itself isn’t seen especially positively, and when that establishment itself is made up disproportionately of a niche (urban contenders for government in two-party Western provinces) which fall far short of covering the ground the federal party needs to win.

What We’ve Learned

McPherson has predictably won a slew of endorsements throughout the campaign. But her experience as an MP hasn’t translated into an advantage in either organization or communication. Instead, she’s tried to walk a fine line between avoiding being seen as the pro-dirty energy candidate, while trying to benefit as the alternative to Lewis’ more focused commitment to a clean energy transition.

What She’s Proposing

One standout proposal from McPherson however is her combination community work placement program as associated job transition plan. While it’s important to deal with the loss of hope throughout the working class, there’s a particular need to offer young voters reason to think they have a path forward – and McPherson has done well on that front.

What to Watch For

Ultimately, McPherson hasn’t been able to turn her advantages into a great deal of momentum for herself – so while to would be a surprise to see her rank below second on the first ballot, her prospects will likely come down to the efforts of the other two main contenders. 

There’s a chance Lewis could take an insurmountable lead early with his greater appeal beyond party lines, or conversely if he can’t match his fund-raising momentum with motivated voters there’s a chance McPherson could win out as the default alternative. Or it’s possible that Ashton could pave the way for her to win by both mobilizing labour, and persuading members not to support Lewis (particularly in down-ballot rankings).

But it’s hard to see what would change for the better in the NDP with McPherson at the helm and the current powers that be left in place.