At this stage of the NDP leadership campaign, there seems to be little doubt which two candidates are the most qualified for the job and best positioned to hit the ground running from day one. Which makes it odd that of the many ballots I’ve seen circulating so far, none rank them in the first two positions. 

I’ll presume that’s a largely a matter of strategic messaging and voting, as people posting their ballots see it as important to be perceived voting against one or the other. (Needless to say, that makes for no small irony given how much reason NDP members have to challenge that mindset in federal elections.)

But I won’t be following the trend. So here’s how I’ll be ranking the candidates.

1. Avi Lewis

Since before the last federal election campaign, I’ve been emphasizing the need for the NDP and its leadership to adapt with organizing ambition and a willingness to resist and confront both the Trump regime, and the filthy rich class (spread across multiple parties) which has supported or enabled its abuses. 

Lewis is the only leadership candidate meeting the moment, offering the prospect of both party rebuilding and broader organizing. And the fact that he combines that needed approach with strong communication skills and deep political and media bona fides makes him my clear top choice.

2. Heather McPherson

She’s a reasonably close second behind Lewis as a potential spokesperson for the NDP, and her track record as a progressive leader is far better than you’d think from the petropolitical rhetoric being used to try to bully members into supporting her.

But this is not a moment to vote out of fear or resignation, nor to treat the federal NDP’s role as being limited to that of headwaiter to the party’s provincial wings. And the ubiquity of those themes among McPherson’s supporters signals that she’s not the right first choice.

3. Tanille Johnston

It may have been lost in the results of the 2025 election, but Johnston was already seen as a rising star candidate when she made her first federal run. And despite the NDP’s painful overall result and an associated Liberal vote split, she came extremely close to holding a seat which had rarely been more than a virtual coin flip even in better days for the party.

Which is to say that based on her strong personal profile, her ideas and her established organizing success, Johnston should be seen as one of key faces of the NDP’s future. And while she isn’t yet in the same tier as the candidates above her as a current leadership contender, I’d hope we’ll see her in another leadership race down the road.

4. Rob Ashton

Ashton does get credit for out-organizing my initial expectations, and for at least recognizing plenty of policies worth pursuing (though as PLG notes in his comment, those have rarely appeared in Ashton’s opportunities to speak contemporaneously). 

Ultimately, though, he too has spent too much of the campaign fighting either past battles or the wrong opponents to place any higher in my rankings.

5. Tony McQuail

While he’s made a valiant effort as a lower-profile candidate and brought plenty of worthwhile ideas to the race, McQuail is ultimately the candidate with the least prospect of rebuilding the NDP’s organization from a lead role. And so while I hope both he and his principles feature in the party’s future plans, he lands at the bottom of my leadership ballot.