Mel Kiper Jr. thinks Arch Manning has ‘got to go back to college for another year’

The draft guru has spoken.

The Texas Longhorns entered the 2026 college football season as a trendy pick for national champion, and they seemed to be living up to that promise after beating Ohio State and becoming the No. 1 team in the nation. However, after consecutive losses to unranked teams (Oklahoma, Florida), the Longhorns are free-falling, and much of the blame is being foisted on quarterback Arch Manning.

Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, came into the season with Heisman hype, but has disappointed with his inconsistency and lack of growth. It’s gotten to the point where the guy once considered a presumed No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft is being told to stay in school another year.

And it’s not just anyone telling him that. Longtime ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. is the one saying it.

“All I’ll say is right now, you’ve got to go back to college for another year,” Kiper said Monday on First Draft. “And if you don’t, it’s got to be the Green Bay Packer model of Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers where you’ve got your guy and you’re picking late first round, and you’ve got your quarterback for another three years – I’m saying three years. I’m not saying one, I’m not saying two.

“Patrick Mahomes sat for a year. Let’s forget the year. For Arch, I think it’s three years. It’s got to be the Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers model if he comes out.”

It’s not as though Manning hasn’t put up big numbers. He’s completed 63.9% of his passes for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions this year. Last season, he threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns, with seven interceptions. However, he’s made some backbreaking mistakes you wouldn’t expect from a highly touted prospect, and that has Kiper thinking he still needs to show something before he’s ready to move up a level.

“In every game, you get the good, the bad and the ugly,” Kiper said. “That’s what you’re getting. It’s a wild ride. It’s going to be up, down and around. You might get a quarter, you might get a series, you might get a glimpse, you might get, maybe, a half. But you’re not going to get consistency. You’re just not going to. I keep waiting and waiting and waiting for that game.”

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