The end of summer has brought increased attention to Canada-U.S. relations. We are in the middle of two provincial campaigns where incumbent premiers—Christine Fréchette in Quebec and David Eby in B.C.—have pivoted from domestic issues to tell voters they are steady hands to deal with President Donald Trump. The American president’s endless memes and statements have not made relations easier.

Attention to the tariffs has grown, with 75 per cent of Canadians (up seven points since June) following news on this topic “very closely” or “moderately closely.” More than four in five Canadians (82 per cent, unchanged) who consider the tariffs a threat to Canada. The perception of a possible military conflict with the United States dropped from 50 per cent three months ago to 43 per cent now.

Views on what Trump might do soon did not vary. Canadians are still more likely to foresee an expansion of the tariffs (38 per cent, up one point) than their rescission (31 per cent, unchanged). A majority of Canadians (58 per cent, up three points) avoiding buying goods made in the U.S. if a non-American alternative is available.

This survey was conducted as Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed expanding Canada’s relationship with the European Union (EU). The concept of “associate membership” is understood differently, even within EU circles. More than three in four Canadians (77 per cent, up one point) would like to enhance trade with the EU.

More than half of Canadians (53 per cent, up three points) would favour initiating a formal process for Canada to join the EU. This is the highest level recorded since we started asking the question in March 2025. Canadians aged 55 and over—who strongly supported the Liberal party in last year’s federal election—are slightly more likely to explore the process of Canada’s EU membership (54 per cent) than those aged 35 to 54 (50 per cent).

At this point, Canada joining the EU is attractive to 64 per cent of Canadians who backed the Liberal party in 2025, as well as 60 per cent of those who backed the New Democratic Party (NDP). Support drops to 42 per cent among Conservative party voters.

The trade dispute has helped Carney establish an emotional connection with Canadians. Almost two-thirds (65 per cent, up five points) approve of his performance dealing with U.S. tariffs. Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre stands at 41 per cent (up one point). Only 39 per cent of Canadians (down three points) believe this issue would be better managed if the Conservatives had won last year’s federal election, while almost half (47 per cent, unchanged) disagree.

Just over half of Canadians (51 per cent, up five points) believe their premier is managing the tariffs dispute effectively, while 35 per cent (up two points) feel the same way about their provincial opposition leader.

In the four most populous provinces, the numbers are worthy of a closer look. Alberta’s Danielle Smith—facing a referendum on sovereignty next month—holds an approval rating of 32 per cent on tariffs. Favourable views are higher for Fréchette in Quebec (50 per cent), Doug Ford in Ontario (54 per cent) and Eby in B.C. (56 per cent).

Frechette and Eby are trying to recreate Carney’s success, but face different challenges. The election in Quebec outlines a divided National Assembly, with three parties—including Frechette’s own Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ)—angling to catch up with the sovereigntist Parti Quebecois.

In B.C., the snap election that looked like a slam dunk on Friday has become a contested tip-off in 72 hours. Any data collected before the announcement of Lorne Doerkson as leader of the BC Conservatives is now worthless.

The survey shows that Canadians are still focused on tariffs. It is still too early to tell if the issue will affect the two provincial elections next month: one as scheduled, one not quite.

Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from Sept. 21-23, 2026, among 1,003 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.