The $10,000 container is back—at least for East Coast-bound freight.

The average cost of moving a 40-foot container from Shanghai to New York jumped 6.9 percent on Thursday to $10,394, according to Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) pushing the trade lane above $10,000 for the first time since July 2022.

Spot rates to the U.S. West Coast have escalated in parallel, although not as rapidly. On the trans-Pacific trade lane, rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased 4.9 percent to $7,712 per 40-foot container.

These shipments to the U.S. have propped up Drewry’s composite WCI covering eight major global trade lanes. For the week, the benchmark increased 0.5 percent to $4,500 per 40-foot container.

The global freight rate picture has been a story of bifurcation over the past two months. Since July 30, rates to both U.S. coasts out of China have increased dramatically. New York-bound cargo has escalated 37.2 percent, while containers to Los Angeles have increased 34.3 percent.

However, China-to-Europe rates have largely collapsed in that time frame, with routes to ports in Rotterdam and Genoa having declined for seven straight weeks. Containers shipped from Shanghai to Genoa cost $4,016 on average, a 28.7 percent decline from July 30. Shipments to Rotterdam have fallen 22.3 percent to $3,626 per 40-foot box.

According to Drewry, the Asia-Europe rates face downward pressure from the gradual return of services through the Suez Canal and relatively weak demand.

Drewry expects trans-Pacific rates to rise slightly this week amid the impending pre-Golden Week demand, which takes place across China from Oct. 1-7. As exporters rush to move cargo before the weeklong holiday begins, ocean freight demand typically surges, causing the price spikes.

“The bigger operational concern, however, is no longer just price,” said freight forwarder Freight Right Logistics in an update last week. “Vessel schedules have become increasingly unreliable. A shipment can secure space and still see its scheduled departure pushed back several days. When a booking rollover is combined with a delayed vessel departure, total delays can approach two weeks.”

At the Port of Shanghai, waiting time for ships increased from 65 hours in the week of Aug. 31-Sept. 6, to 78 hours in the week of Sept. 7-13, according to Drewry.

Golden Week is expected to complicate this further. During the seven-day stretch, many of China’s factories, warehouses, customs-related services and domestic logistics providers operate at reduced levels or close completely, forcing more shipping movement in the week ahead of October.

With the heavy demand, which has resulted in a stronger-than-expected September for cargo entering the U.S., carriers are looking to manage capacity and prop up freight rates through blank sailings. According to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight, nine blank sailings have been announced on the trans-Pacific trade lane this week, up from eight last week, indicating tighter capacity.

The pre-Golden Week demand and the congestion taking place outside Asian ports are expected to remain key factors for the container market in the coming weeks.

“Port congestion in China is gradually easing from their recent peaks but the disruptions at Southeast Asia and India/Middle East ports remain at near record highs,” said container shipping market research firm Linerlytica in a Monday update, which noted that congestion is also building up at certain U.S. East Coast ports. In total, 3.82 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), or 11.1 percent of the global fleet’s capacity, are involved in the congestion.

According to Freight Right Logistics, shipping conditions may remain difficult immediately after China returns from the October holiday as carriers work through accumulated cargo and reduced sailing capacity.

Some urgent shipments that miss the ocean window could also shift to air freight.

“We should expect one more freight rate push at the start of October as shippers rush cargo out of Asia ahead of the Golden Week shutdown, before rates start to soften, or at least the pace of growth will slow,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight benchmarking platform Xeneta, on Friday.

Freight Right agreed with the assertion of one more rate push to kick off next month, before ocean demand begins to cool in October’s second half.

“Much of the inventory intended for the year-end holiday selling season will already have moved, reducing the urgency that is currently supporting rates,” said the freight forwarder. “That creates the potential for rates to begin moving lower heading into November and December before another seasonal push develops ahead of Chinese New Year.”