Carney’s Glitzy Summit Lures International Investments to Canada


(Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s effort to charm a cadre of the world’s largest investors at a VIP-only summit in Toronto last week is paying quick dividends for Canadian investments.

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With a stock market trading at a discount to its US rival, an improving growth outlook and Carney’s promises of tax cuts, fiscal policy certainty and regulatory rollbacks, multiple fund managers say they are boosting their equity allocations in Canada. In addition, the country’s bigger-than-expected list of 167 major industrial and infrastructure projects has unearthed new investing ideas as Carney seeks C$1 trillion ($715 billion) of investment in the nation.

“Prime Minister Carney said, ‘high standards don’t require slow decisions,’ and that’s really the mindset that he’s in,” said Mathieu Chabran, co-founder of French alternative asset manager Tikehau Capital SCA, who noted that Canada has become an important market for the firm, which specializes in private market investments. “I have the impression that he’s positioning his administration to be resource driven and get things done.”

The reality is Canadian stocks are relatively cheap. About 45% of S&P/TSX Composite Index members are trading above their 50-day moving averages, down from 85% at the beginning of the year. The benchmark is priced at less than 16 times earnings over the next 12 months, down from 17.4 times in February and a discount to its US counterpart, the S&P 500 Index, which has a multiple of 19 times.

Foreign investors have been pouring money into Canada all year, though it has primarily flowed into the bond market. But stock buying is starting to pick up, with net foreign inflows of C$7.2 billion ($5.1 billion) in July, the fastest rate this year, data released Thursday show. Total inflows into all asset classes over the last 12 months was roughly $211 billion, or 8.7% of the country’s gross domestic product, according to economists at Bank of Montreal.

“Canada is an attractive market for investment,” said Peter Stensgaard Mørch, chief executive officer of PensionDanmark, a member-owned labor market pension fund with more than 412 billion Danish kroner ($63 billion) in assets under management. “The Canadian government demonstrates a strong understanding of what is required to attract additional investment.”

Prior to the event, PensionDanmark held C$1 billion in total investments in Canada. While a majority of investments in North America will continue to go toward the US, Mørch added that it may “very well be the case” that the firm increases its Canadian stock allocations.

At the summit, Blackstone Inc. President Jonathan Gray called Canada “a sleeping giant, economically” that offers better-than-expected growth.

“It does appear to be a sea change,” said Christopher Harvey, head of equity and portfolio strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. “We are seeing more and more interest in Canada from outside sources.”

This is why Carney’s summit in Toronto turned out to be one of last week’s biggest events in the financial world. Principals from Persian Gulf sovereign wealth funds, French investment firms and Japanese banks hustled in and out of the Four Seasons hotel, ushered by a procession of black SUVs with tinted window. An army of security guards was assigned to keep the summit ultra exclusive.

Numerous chief investment officers and managing directors at multibillion-dollar asset management firms didn’t make the cut and instead were shunted off to gatherings around the city, like Milken Institute’s first-ever large-scale Canadian event. With the Toronto International Film Festival also going on, the whole thing pushed the cost of hotel rooms, and the price of cocktails, to outrageous levels.

“To gather the Champions League, if you will, of the asset management and the investment world, was impressive,” Tikehau’s Chabran said.

From a performance by Quebec singer Charlotte Cardin at the gala dinner inside the Art Gallery of Ontario, a highlight of the entire summit for Chabran, to “energizing” speeches from Carney, the summit left a positive impression, he said, comparing it to French President Emmanuel Macron launching Choose France in 2018.

“It’s a wake up call for a lot of people to start doing their work and start paying attention to what is happening in Canada,” said Irene Fernando, co-head of North American equities at RBC Global Asset Management, which has C$834 billion in assets under management. She wanted to attend the main summit, but had to content herself with the multiple spillover investor events surrounding the conference. And she’s looking to boost allocations in Canada after the tax breaks, regulatory streamlining and major project lists Carney touted last week.

Many of the spillover events were standing room only, said Sadiq Adatia, chief investment officer at BMO Global Asset Management, which has C$296 billion in assets under management. The firm was underweight Canada before this month, but Adatia has raised allocations up to neutral and is looking for opportunities to go overweight in the coming weeks.

Some investors overseeing North American funds say they’re looking to take profits in the US to buy stocks in Toronto. Canadian investors sold more than C$31 billion ($22 billion) of US shares in July, the Canadian government reported last week. That’s a record tally and compares with purchases of almost C$78.1 billion ($56 billion) in the first six months of the year.

Of course, there are still major challenges ahead for the Canadian stock market, which has traded at a discount to the US consistently since 2017. The S&P/TSX peaked shortly after trade talks between Ottawa and Washington broke down in late August, sparking escalating tariffs from the two countries.

On the other hand, the trade-war driven need to invest in growth and diversification projects was part of Carney’s pitch to investors last week. The fight may also be encouraging some large investors to look for equity opportunities in Toronto.

“The tide is turning,” said Greg Taylor, chief investment officer at PenderFund Capital Management in Vancouver. “It could be that Trump has galvanized us, and Canada is going to put money to work.”

–With assistance from Thomas Seal and Mario Baker Ramirez.

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