NFL teams are susceptible to big swings from one year to the next. For dreamers, one popular exercise has been projecting which teams are most likely to go from bottom dweller to Super Bowl contender. The Patriots were an example last season. Alternatively, there is the path that the Commanders took: going from the NFC Championship game during the 2024 season to the No. 7 overall selection in the NFL Draft. The catalyst for that regression was the injury to quarterback Jayden Daniels. 

Considering the four teams representing the AFC and NFC in the conference championship and beyond, how would the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Rams rank, from least likely to most likely to pick in top 10 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft? 

4. Los Angeles Rams

No team has improved more than the Rams since last season concluded. They took an NFC title roster and added All-Pros Trent McDuffie, Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald. The secondary has gone from a weakness to a strength, and the unit should benefit from increased pressure from the front. 

Los Angeles has one of the oldest rosters in the league, which could make them more susceptible to injuries. General manager Les Snead has done well building contingencies into the roster. They brought back Tutu Atwell at receiver. They used the No. 13 overall selection on Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson rather than attacking a position of greater need this season. If Simpson is forced into action, there is every reason to believe Sean McVay, who got Baker Mayfield ready on a day’s notice, will have the rookie up to speed. 

The offensive line is a bit of a concern from a talent perspective, but the team has always been able to mitigate a lack of talent through the scheme. 

3. Seattle Seahawks

There is a lot of confidence in head coach Mike Macdonald, who reminds me of a young Bill Belichick. Macdonald’s defensive accomplishments do not rely solely on a schematic advantage. He has a forward way of thinking that should allow him to remain on the front foot as team personnel and the league evolves around him. 

There were key members of that Seattle team who will not be back: cornerback Riq Woolen, running back Kenneth Walker III, edge rusher Boye Mafe and others. However, the lead actors remain intact. 

There will always be a portion of NFL fans who are waiting for the other shoe to drop on quarterback Sam Darnold. He has been good for two consecutive seasons, but the image of him seeing ghosts early in his career with the Jets will outlast him. 

HBO’s ‘Hard Knocks’ offered a glimpse into what appears to be a very close-knit locker room, and there is a level of expectation fostered in that building. The Seahawks return as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. 

2. Denver Broncos

Denver made one of the best acquisitions of the offseason in wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Waddle is viewed as the missing piece to Sean Payton’s operation. He brings the motion and speed they’ve sorely lacked. Otherwise, the offseason was more of a net negative for the organization. 

The defense is among the best in the league, but edge rusher Jonathon Cooper was placed on the commissioner’s exempt list as the league investigates an offseason incident, and defensive tackle John Franklin Myers signed with the Titans in free agency. How many threads in the defense can be pulled before the rug unravels?

Quarterback Bo Nix brings competency to the position but lacks the physical tools to carry the team to victory. Payton is regarded as one of the best in the league, so bottoming out is probably not an option for this team. In a division with the Chiefs, Chargers and what should be an improved Raiders team, the path to the postseason is littered with potholes. 

1. New England Patriots 

The Patriots, under head coach Mike Vrabel, arrived to the party sooner than anticipated last season. New England’s roster was among the worst in the league after the 2024 campaign, but leadership relied upon quarterback Drake Maye and a strong rookie class to propel expectations. 

However, several factors make it likely the franchise will go from title contender to a top-10 overall pick in the draft. First and foremost, New England had the fourth-easiest strength of schedule last season. A byproduct of a successful season is that they now have the sixth-hardest schedule based on last season’s win totals. 

Although the Patriots are No. 1 on this list, the presence of Vrabel creates a high floor that would likely prevent them from picking early in next year’s draft. The offensive line has more depth but is still a relative unknown heading into the season. Maye’s collection of pass catchers has improved year over year. The offseason drama surrounding Vrabel is in the rearview mirror and likely an afterthought for his players. 

In short, there is no strong candidate to mirror the Commanders’ 2025-2026 fall.