Ironically, there might be a danger of something similar happening again. After never really getting a handle on the ground effect regulations (2022–2025), Mercedes put a lot of effort into starting the 2026 rule set as it did in 2014, with the most powerful hybrid power units and a chassis that could exploit them. And it did, winning the first six races in a row. But the car has been plagued with unreliability, most of it affecting George Russell and not Kimi Antonelli (who now, like Button in 2009, has a commanding lead over everyone else in the driver’s championship).

And unlike in 2014, Mercedes can’t just throw money at the problem. F1 teams now operate under a strict cost cap of $215 million (plus a little extra if they’re permitted an engine upgrade as was announced in Monaco), and this weekend Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff told journalists, “We haven’t got the money to put developments on the car. I said before that we are trying to evenly split that through the season based on our calculations of when we can bring the biggest updates and optimizing the championship points. But we just can’t do what we can’t do.”

Indeed, at Zandvoort, Mercedes was fast, but so too was McLaren, which has now proven its ability to bring upgrades to the track that work as intended across both the ground effect era and now this one. And in the hands of Lando Norris, the orange-and-black McLaren was fast enough to hunt down and pass Antonelli before winning by almost 12 seconds.

Alpine brought plenty of upgrades to Zandvoort, as did Ferrari and McLaren. And at Hungary, just before the break, Aston Martin finally dragged itself into the midpack. A Honda engine upgrade arrived this weekend that has helped close the gap a little more. Fernando Alonso told journalists that “we used to be 4.5 seconds average on the gap to the leader, so we improved three seconds in two races,” and the veteran driver finished in the points for the second time, coming home on Sunday in ninth place. But Honda still has work to do, according to Alonso’s teammate Lance Stroll, who complained about poor drivability and a gearbox that would sometimes reject instructions to downshift.