Members of the PSA Airlines Cadet Program received a disappointing email in late July 2026, when the company advised pilot cadets that it would no longer sponsor the ATP/CTP course that all new hires are required to complete before officially joining the airline. Traditionally, this is paid for by the company, but for those in the PSA program, it’s now on the cadet’s shoulders to take the course and pay for it.

This is far from the only change we’ve seen to US pilot cadet programs in recent years, and it looks as though the long-reported pilot shortage may be ending. The term ‘ pilot shortage‘ started being widely used in the 2010s, but became especially relevant in the 2020s after the pandemic, and marketers have used the term to encourage more prospective students to begin flight training.

It’s not all marketing fluff, but the true reality of the shortage was more complicated. Understanding this is crucial to understanding why PSA has passed the responsibility of the ATP/CTP course to students, why American Airlines has suspended its cadet program, and why some programs are simply not accepting new applicants.

The Start Of The Pilot Shortage

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Airline pilots have a mandatory retirement age, which has traditionally been 60 years in the US, but was bumped up to 65 in 2007. US airlines hired a large number of pilots in the 20th century who were all set to retire in high numbers at largely the same time, and the age-65 rule pushed the retirement wave to the 2020s.

Hundreds of pilots have been retiring each year, which already creates a high number of open positions, and then there’s also the fact that the US’s largest carriers have been growing, creating even more vacancies. Pilot training in the US comes with six-figure costs while taking between one and two years to earn a commercial pilot’s license, which requires 250 flight hours. However, in 2013, the FAA issued a new regulation mandating that all pilots working for a Part 121 air carrier hold an ATPL, requiring at least 1,500 flight hours (regional first officers could previously fly with only a CPL).

This can take an additional two to three years of working low-paying entry-level pilot jobs, delaying the opportunity to make real money at an airline and effectively making the career less accessible. There has never been a shortage of qualified pilots who would be willing to jump to American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, or United Airlines, the three largest and best-paying airlines in the US.

Instead, the companies that have been impacted by a shortage of pilots were regional airlines. As the mainline carriers began growing in the 2010s, regional captains were jumping ship in increasingly large numbers, while the 1,500-hour rule restricted the pipeline of new pilots, resulting in fewer first officers.

How COVID Exacerbated The Regional Pilot Shortage

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When the world shut down in 2020, the airlines dramatically cut their schedules, paused hiring, and offered early retirement packages to senior pilots. Pilot workgroups were trimmed, leaving airlines short-staffed in 2021 as travel demand began to recover rapidly and airlines began expanding.

As such, starting in 2021, mainline carriers started hiring new pilots in record numbers, as many senior crew members retired during COVID, even more pilots were nearing age 65, and airlines were also growing. During this phase, essentially all US airlines were hiring in large numbers, with budget airlines even hiring some 1,500-hour pilots (previously, these carriers required a similar amount of experience as the legacy airlines).

Airlines dropped the requirement to hold a bachelor’s degree, while also hiring pilots with less experience than before. For the most part, legacy and low-cost carriers had no issue in finding enough pilots to fill their staffing requirements, but this also cleared out workgroups at regional airlines.

Because regional captains (and even some first officers) were getting hired quickly, regional airlines boosted their own hiring of qualified pilots with at least 1,500 hours. However, most pilots were hired with significantly more hours in the past due to the competitive job landscape. There quickly proved to be a shortage of newly qualified commercial pilots, so the focus then shifted to how to increase the number of new pilots entering the career.

How Airlines Boosted The Supply Of New Pilots

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Fundamentally, it’s the early stages of the career that turn many people away, because it’s tremendously expensive to become a pilot and initial wages have traditionally been quite low. Consequentially, regional airlines implemented salary increases across the board, with hourly rates now rivaling what new mainline pilots earn, while carriers also offered large sign-on bonuses.

Some carriers, like Republic Airways, even make new pilots sign contracts that bind them to the airline for a certain number of years, though these agreements are not always enforced. In 2018, American Airlines and Delta Air Lines both started new cadet programs, while United started its Aviate program in 2019. These are marketed as zero-to-mainline programs, but are primarily designed to keep regional partner airlines staffed.

The program may offer benefits like a sponsored loan, a pilot mentor, a conditional job offer, or even bonuses to encourage people to enter this field, thereby increasing the incoming flow of newly qualified pilots who will then work at a specific regional airline. Some regional airlines have flow agreements with mainline carriers, such as Endeavor Air and Delta.

Here, pilots essentially transfer automatically to mainline without needing to interview again. However, this is metered because the objective is to ensure that the regional airline remains staffed, while the flow is more of an incentive for cadets to choose a particular program. Still, the security of eventually transferring is a major benefit given that the career has traditionally been far from steady, and these carriers also pay more money than before.

What’s Happening Today In The Pilot Job Market?

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The primary goal of measures like airline cadet programs, pay raises, sign-on bonuses, flow programs, and more is to increase the supply of new pilots to keep regional airlines staffed. In the years following the pandemic, regional airlines also ramped up hiring, and it became much easier for these airlines to attract applicants because the job itself had become much more appealing compared to ten years ago.

Today, however, the regionals are no longer short-staffed, which means that they no longer need to offer as many benefits as before. Many regional airlines have reduced or cut the post-COVID sign-on bonuses. United Aviate and Delta Propel have undergone several changes that make the programs less enticing than they were pre-COVID.

Meanwhile, American has suspended its cadet program, sending prospective students to programs managed by its regional airlines that offer fewer benefits. Alaska Airlines, Frontier, and Southwest Airlines are no longer accepting new applicants, while PSA Airlines is no longer sponsoring ATP-CTP courses. Hiring has slowed down, and there is now a glut of commercial pilots and certified flight instructors with 1,500 hours.

Today, there isn’t really a pilot shortage in the US anymore: if anything, there is now a pilot surplus. As such, the airlines are already cutting expensive benefits and scaling back costly career development programs, and it’s likely that this trend will continue as the industry returns to a more ‘normal’ state compared to the 2021-to-2023 time period.

The Prospects Of A Pilot’s Career In The US

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The airline industry is cyclical by nature, and this is especially true for pilots. Airlines hire right up until they furlough, and the type of career that you’ll have is largely determined by luck more than anything else. Flying is still one of the most rewarding careers one can have and remains financially lucrative.

What’s more, the US’s largest carriers are still growing and are continuing to experience a high number of senior pilot retirements. The only caveat is that the environment has changed from the post-COVID years, but that was an anomaly. A unique set of circumstances occurred to create a hiring environment that was exceptionally favorable to pilots, but this has since passed.

​​​​​​​When looking at historical trends, it’s unusual for there to be such an extreme mismatch between the supply and demand for pilots, and the job market is now closer to a state of equilibrium. While the current situation is closer to a surplus, this could easily swing back the other way depending on the number of new students, but it is unlikely to be as extreme as what was seen at the beginning of the 2020s.

For low-time pilots, positions at regional airlines are becoming more competitive, and even vacancies for other commercial pilot jobs like instructors have become scarce. As it stands today, it’ll take longer for most people to get a job as an instructor, followed by a job at a regional airline, compared to right after COVID, and it won’t be as streamlined. Still, undoubtedly the most predictable part of the career is its unpredictability, and the hiring situation could change drastically in the future.