For Democrats, the Twin Cities May Be Decisive

The state’s two largest counties, Hennepin and Ramsey, are home to Minneapolis and St. Paul and account for around half of the state’s Democratic votes. The Twin Cities are a hub of progressive support in the state: In 2024, the “uncommitted” movement, a protest vote over President Biden’s support for Israel and the war against Hamas, drew some of its strongest support in the area.

Ms. Flanagan is expected to fare well in these counties, particularly Hennepin, where she was raised and currently resides. She has criticized Ms. Craig’s vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act, which gave ICE broader enforcement powers. That could be a factor in Minneapolis, where two civilians were killed by federal immigration agents in January.

Five other high-income, suburban counties constitute the broader Twin Cities metro area — Anoka to the north, Washington to the east and Carver, Dakota and Scott to the south — and are expected to make up an additional 20 percent of the statewide vote. Ms. Craig represents several of those counties in Congress, and they tend to favor more moderate candidates. In the 2020 presidential primary, Mr. Biden won this grouping of counties by 17 percentage points over Senator Bernie Sanders, while winning Hennepin and Ramsey by just one percentage point.

Rice County, to the south of those key counties, could be an interesting bellwether. A significant portion of it lies in Ms. Craig’s district, including the city of Northfield, home to St. Olaf College and Carleton College, two private liberal arts schools. The high population of college students could make the county more favorable for Ms. Flanagan — in Michigan, college towns were among the strongest areas for Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive who narrowly won the Democratic primary for Senate in Michigan last week.

In the 2020 and 2024 primaries, Mr. Biden fared best in the rest of the state. That could be a promising sign for Ms. Craig.

Ms. Flanagan, who is Ojibwe and a member of the White Earth Nation, could fare better in rural counties with high Native American populations, including Beltrami and Mahnomen.

For Republicans, Suburban Coalitions Are in Play

The Republican primary for governor will test concerns over Mike Lindell’s electability against the power of Mr. Trump’s support. Mr. Lindell, the chief executive of MyPillow and a prominent election denier, scored a coveted endorsement from Mr. Trump, but the chairman of the state’s Republican Party issued a statement criticizing his candidacy.

Hennepin and Ramsey, where Nikki Haley received a large portion of her support in the 2024 presidential primary, are arguably the state’s weakest areas for a Trump-supported candidate. That could translate to more support for Lisa Demuth, the speaker of the state’s House of Representatives, or Kendall Qualls, a businessman and Army veteran who has been endorsed by the state party.

Though it makes up far less of the statewide vote in Republican primaries than it does in Democratic ones, the Twin Cities metro area will still be crucial, with the seven core counties providing around one-third of the primary’s votes.

Both Mr. Lindell and Mr. Qualls have ties to the area: Mr. Lindell grew up in Carver County, where MyPillow is based, while Mr. Qualls ran for Congress in the area in 2020.

Ms. Demuth’s district centers on Stearns County, which is part of the St. Cloud metro area and could be a potential base of support for her.