Trade growth stalled after the Global Financial Crisis, and world trade is now splitting along geopolitical lines. This poses a distinctive challenge for the EU, whose two largest trading partners are willing to use trade as leverage. This column argues that the fragmentation is best understood through the lens of geoeconomics, in which trade dependencies are weaponised in pursuit of geopolitical goals. China’s rise has shifted geoeconomic power in its favour, eroding Western leverage. Europe must now weigh the gains from specialisation against the costs of dependency, while also strengthening internal political coordination.



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