While it’s fair to say no rank outsider has ever won a World Cup, predicting who will win soccer’s biggest prize is rarely an easy pursuit. From West Germany beating heavy favorite Hungary in the 1954 final to the widely backed France bowing out early at the semifinal stage during this year’s tournament, when it comes to the beautiful game, certainty is a myth. Its unpredictability turns even the most informed forecasts into little more than educated guesses.

The smart money appears to be on France’s conqueror, Spain, to lift the trophy at the end of Sunday’s showpiece final on Sunday in New Jersey, with oddsmakers strongly backing Lamine Yamal and co. to edge past defending champion Argentina. Others (and, indeed, some conspiracy theorists) will meanwhile be backing veteran star Lionel Messi to bow out from the international stage by guiding La Albiceleste to back-to-back triumphs while also claiming the Golden Boot award in the process. 

But what if we could cut through the noise of tradition, emotion and betting odds and come up with a solid prediction for the big game using cold, hard data and the technology that might one day supplant even the most informed soccer pundit?

From courtrooms to the Oval Office, while the likes of Sam Altman, Elon Musk and Dario Amodei may be battling it out for supremacy in the AI arms race, today we’re putting all other considerations aside. We’re looking to decide which of the main chatbots comes out on top in the ultimate test: predicting the outcome of 22 grown adults spending 90 minutes chasing a pressurized leather sphere around a giant patch of grass.

(Disclosure: Ziff Davis, CNET’s parent company, filed a lawsuit against OpenAI in 2025, alleging it infringed Ziff Davis copyrights in training and operating its AI systems.)  

The prompt

Chatbots can notoriously provide vague responses, but that’s usually down to us mere mortals not providing them with exact constraints. As we were looking for a concrete prediction on the final score, goal scorers, player of the match and when the game will end (i.e., within 90 minutes, within extra time or after penalties), the parameters in our prompt needed to be pretty tight. 

We also opted to use a bit of roleplay, setting the AI’s mindset to act as a football/soccer analyst, hopefully ensuring the responses were grounded in sports expertise rather than generic guesswork.

As well as examining top-line considerations like current form, injuries and past head-to-heads between Spain and Argentina, the prompt was also devised to go a bit deeper. It needed to take into account venue conditions at New York New Jersey Stadium (aka MetLife Stadium) and the refereeing style of Slavko Vinčić, the man bestowed with the whistle for Sunday’s game.

The players here? Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT, Perplexity and Microsoft Copilot. Here’s the full prompt:

Role: You are a world-class football analyst with deep expertise in statistical modeling, player performance and tournament dynamics.

Task:
Predict the outcome of the 2026 World Cup Final between Spain and Argentina on Sunday, July 19, 2026, at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey. Provide a detailed analysis and final prediction, including:

1. Final score (after 90 minutes, extra time or penalties if applicable).
2. Likely scorers for each team.
3. Key factors influencing the result (e.g., injuries, suspensions, tactical setups, form, head-to-head history).
4. Probability of the game going to extra time or penalties.
5. Player of the Match prediction.

Context to Consider

Tournament performance:

• Spain’s path to the final: opponents faced, goals scored/conceded, standout performances, and tactical approaches (e.g., possession-based play, pressing, defensive solidity).
• Argentina’s path to the final: same metrics as above, with a focus on Messi’s influence, defensive resilience, and attacking patterns.

Player availability and fitness:

• Injuries or suspensions for key players (e.g., Spain’s Pedri, Rodri, or Argentina’s Messi, Álvarez). 
• Recent form of star players (e.g., Lamine Yamal for Spain, Emiliano Martínez for Argentina).

Head-to-Head history:

• Results of the last 5 encounters between Spain and Argentina (win/loss margins, goal scorers, red cards).
• Styles of play in past matches (e.g., Spain’s tiki-taka vs. Argentina’s counterattacking).

Major tournament pedigree:

• Spain’s record in World Cups/Euros (e.g., 2010 World Cup win, recent performances).
• Argentina’s record (e.g., 2022 World Cup win, Copa América form).

External Factors:

• Venue conditions (e.g., MetLife Stadium’s pitch, weather forecast).
• Psychological edge (e.g., Argentina’s experience in high-pressure finals vs. Spain’s younger squad).
• Refereeing style of Slavko Vinčić, who is the confirmed referee for the match (e.g., strictness on fouls, VAR impact in the tournament so far).

Output Format:

1. Prediction Summary:

• Final score: [X-Y] (e.g., 2-1 Spain after extra time).
• Scorers: [Player names and minute, e.g., “Lamine Yamal (45+1′), Lautaro Martínez (78′)”].
• Extra time/penalties? [Yes/No + probability, e.g., “60% chance of extra time”].

2. Key Reasoning: 3-5 bullet points justifying the prediction (e.g., “Spain’s midfield control vs. Argentina’s clinical finishing”).

3. Player of the Match: [Name + reason].

Additional Notes:

• Assume both teams field their strongest available XI.
• Use statistical trends (e.g., xG, possession stats) from the tournament.
• Highlight wildcards (e.g., a breakout star like Pau Cubarsí or a tactical surprise from Lionel Scaloni).

The results

As mentioned, the prompt required each chatbot to outline a prediction for the final score, goal scorers, the likelihood of the match going to extra time and penalties and a summary of its reasoning. You can find each of the five models’ responses below. Some of the chatbots went above and beyond with very detailed reasoning, so we’ve picked out the key aspects of each summary for brevity. The chatbot responses also contained some grammar and spelling errors, which we’ve intentionally included.  

Claude

Claude by Anthropic is CNET’s current pick for the best overall chatbot, thanks to its consistency and detailed answers. 

We used Claude’s default Sonnet 5, medium effort setting for this test, which took just under 30 seconds to respond.

Final score: Spain 2-1 Argentina (after 90 minutes)

Scorers: Lamine Yamal (52′), Mikel Oyarzabal (81′) — Spain; Lionel Messi (65′, penalty) — Argentina

Extra time/penalties probability: ~30% chance of extra time, ~15% chance it reaches penalties. 

Player of the Match: Lamine Yamal

Key reasoning highlights:

“This has been a tight, low-scoring tournament for both sides (Spain conceding just one goal all tournament, Argentina grinding out narrow wins), which points toward a close final that could easily go the distance — but I lean toward Spain finding a second-half breakthrough that Argentina can’t fully answer.

“Fatigue is Scaloni’s real concern, not injuries. Argentina played extra time in two knockout matches and nearly needed it in others, meaning fatigue — not injury or suspension — is Scaloni’s biggest worry heading into the final. Spain, by comparison, has had a smoother run and fresher legs, which should matter in the final 20-30 minutes.

“The individual duel that decides it: Yamal’s directness against Argentina’s aging but experienced back line (Tagliafico, Otamendi/Romero) versus Messi’s vision unlocking Spain’s back three. I expect Yamal to have the bigger individual influence over 90 minutes, with Messi’s moment coming via a set piece or penalty rather than open play. [Editor’s note: I would say Spain plays a back four, but you could argue it becomes a back three in possession.]

“At 19, in the biggest game of his life, I expect Yamal to combine a goal with the tournament’s signature moment — a mix of individual quality and undeniable a maturity beyond his years to overwhelm Argentina’s fatigued flank. His semifinal performance already denied Mbappé the spotlight; a final where he outduels Messi head-to-head would be the story of the tournament.

“One honest caveat: this is a genuine 50/50-ish contest between the two best teams in the world, and if Argentina’s Messi-driven late-tournament pattern repeats itself, an Argentina win (potentially via extra time) is very plausible. Spain’s control and freshness give them a narrow edge, but this has all the hallmarks of a final that isn’t settled until the closing minutes.”

Gemini

We currently rank Google’s Gemini as the best value chatbot thanks to its generous subscription tiers. Its key standout features are its Nano Banana Pro image generator and the way it seamlessly integrates into other Google products, but it managed to hold its own in this test with some of the best arguments for its prediction. That said, most of the conclusions it provided appeared to be made from directly quoting reputable websites (e.g., Fifa.com) rather than forming a reasoned response of its own. For this test, we used Gemini’s default 3.5 Flash (all-around help) model. 

Final score: 2-1 Argentina after extra time (1-1 after 90 minutes).

Scorers: Lamine Yamal (41′) 🇪🇸, Lionel Messi (68′ pen) 🇦🇷, Julián Álvarez (104′) 🇦🇷.

Extra time/penalties probability: Yes, 55% probability of going to extra time; 25% probability of a penalty shootout.

Player of the Match: Lionel Messi

Key reasoning highlights:

“Tactical Suffocation vs. Extreme Resilience: Spain enters the final with the tournament’s most complete tactical machinery, having completely choked out France in the semi-finals through sustained possession loops. However, Argentina has repeatedly shown an elite capability to navigate chaos, surviving multi-goal thrillers against Egypt, Cabo Verde, and Switzerland.

“The Vinčić Factor and Set-Piece Pivots: Slovenian referee Slavko Vinčić averages a high line of discipline (4.19 yellow cards per match historically). In a highly physical final, his strict management of details will reward Argentina’s clever positioning around the box. Lionel Messi’s lethal penalty execution — coupled with his tournament form of 8 goals — will likely punish any defensive over-commitments from Spain’s center-backs. [Editor’s note: Messi has missed two penalties at this World Cup.]

“Squad Depth and Late Overtime Fatigue: Luis de la Fuente’s Spain relies heavily on the physical running of Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo. Because Spain has logged mostly regulation-time matches, their structural organization remains fresh. Conversely, Scaloni’s side has repeatedly adapted to extra time. The relentless counter-pressing energy of Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez will give Argentina an edge during the exhausted transitional sequences of extra time.

“The script feels almost telepathic. Eighteen years after a charity photoshoot where Messi posed with a baby Lamine Yamal, they duel on the grandest stage. Messi’s ability to manipulate tempo, draw crucial fouls in Vinčić’s strict zones, and clinically convert the high-stakes moments will anchor Argentina’s back-to-back world championship triumph.”

ChatGPT

In our recent review, we found that despite its popularity, OpenAI’s ChatGPT is less impressive next to the competition these days and lacks a “killer feature.” As with the other chatbots, we used ChatGPT’s default mode, rather than its paid ChatGPT Plus model. 

Final score: Spain 2-1 Argentina (after extra time)

Scorers: 🇪🇸 Lamine Yamal (34′), 🇦🇷 Julián Álvarez (67′), 🇪🇸 Mikel Oyarzabal (108′)

Extra time/penalties probability: Yes – 43% probability; Penalty shootout – 24% probability

Player of the Match: Lamine Yamal

Key reasoning highlights:

“Spain have been the tournament’s most complete team. They arrive unbeaten over a remarkable 37-match run and have reached the final through control rather than chaos. Their structure, pressing and midfield dominance have allowed them to dictate games while conceding very few chances. Their 2-0 semifinal victory over France reinforced that balance between possession and defensive security.

“Midfield battle slightly favors Spain. Rodri, Pedri and Fabián Ruiz give Spain perhaps the strongest possession midfield in international football. Their expected objectives: Control tempo, Prevent Messi receiving between the lines, Force Argentina into longer defensive phases. Argentina’s Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister can match Spain physically, but Spain’s ability to monopolize possession may gradually wear Argentina down.

“Spain’s superior midfield control and fresher legs are projected to become decisive over 120 minutes, while Argentina’s experience and Messi’s creativity should ensure a fiercely contested final that remains level through regulation. The margin between the teams is slim, making extra time more likely than a comfortable victory for either side.

“Argentina thrive in adversity — but have been forced to suffer. Their knockout run has demanded enormous physical and emotional effort, including dramatic victories over Switzerland and England after another comeback. Those experiences make them exceptionally resilient, but accumulated fatigue could become significant if the match extends beyond 90 minutes.”

Perplexity

Perplexity seems the ideal choice for this sort of task, with Aravind Srinivas’s bot having built a reputation as particularly good for deep dives and comparisons. While it has something of an unenviable reputation for hallucinations, even with recent models, the results it provided for its footy prediction here were weirdness-free. 

Final score: 2-1 Spain (after 90 minutes)

Scorers: Mikel Oyarzabal (34′), Lamine Yamal (71′) for Spain; Lionel Messi (56′ pen) for Argentina

Extra time/penalties probability: No – 55% chance of staying within 90 minutes; 45% chance of extra time

Player of the Match: Lamine Yamal

Key reasoning highlights:

“Spain entered the final with the best defensive record in the tournament: six consecutive clean sheets in knockout play and only 8 total shots on target conceded across 7 matches — a near-record low for a World Cup-winning side. Unai Simón has set a tournament record with 6 clean sheets, and Spain’s backline (featuring Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella, and Pedro Porro) has been exceptionally disciplined. Argentina, by contrast, have scored 17 goals in 6 matches (2.83 per game), with Lionel Messi leading the Golden Boot race with 8 goals. However, they have conceded 6 goals and required extra time in both the quarterfinal and semifinal, suggesting vulnerability under sustained pressure.

“Spain’s midfield trio of Rodri, Pedri, and Fabián Ruiz has controlled tempo better than any team in the tournament, winning possession in the attacking third 6.33 times per 90 minutes – the 6th-highest rate in 60 years of World Cup data. Pedri leads all players with 1.89 attacking-third possessions won per 90, while Yamal ranks 3rd (1.78). This high-press, possession-heavy approach disrupts Argentina’s preferred counter-attacking rhythm, especially given Argentina’s reliance on quick transitions through Messi, Álvarez, and Mac Allister. Spain’s 36-game unbeaten streak (27W-9D-0L) demonstrates their ability to grind out results even in tight games.

“At 19 years old, Yamal has been Spain’s most dangerous attacking outlet, drawing a penalty in the semifinal and consistently beating defenders in 1v1 situations. His pace, dribbling, and improved end product (1 goal, 2 key passes per 90 in the tournament) make him the wildcard who can break down Argentina’s defense. Expect him to either score or create the decisive goal.

“Spain’s defensive solidity, midfield control, and tournament-best possession stats give them a slight edge, but Argentina’s attacking firepower and Messi’s big-game pedigree ensure this will be a nail-biter. Expect a 2–1 Spain victory in 90 minutes, with Yamal’s brilliance proving decisive.”

Microsoft Copilot

The most concise response to our prompt came from Microsoft’s bot, using its default Smart setting. Much like Google’s Gemini, its summary appeared to be mainly derived from directly quoting websites rather than a formulated, reasoned response.  

Final score: Spain 2-1 Argentina (after extra time; 1-1 after 90′)

Scorers: 🇪🇸 Dani Olmo (32′) 🇦🇷 Julián Álvarez (67′) 🇪🇸 Lamine Yamal (107′)

Extra time/penalties probability: Extra time: ~45% chance, Penalties: ~25% chance (game decided in extra time in this prediction)

Player of the Match: Lamine Yamal

Key reasoning highlights:

“Spain’s control in midfield and defensive record. Spain arrive with a Euro 2024 title and have kept six clean sheets in seven World Cup matches, including a 2-0 semi-final win over France, built on Rodri’s control, Pedri’s tempo-setting, and a back line anchored by Pau Cubarsí and Laporte.

“Argentina’s attacking threat is now more collective than Messi-dependent. Scaloni’s likely front three — Messi, Lautaro Martínez, Julián Álvarez — still carries huge scoring potential, but Messi (39) is managing hamstring fatigue and is less explosive over 90+ minutes, shifting more into a creative, zone-14 role while Álvarez and Lautaro attack space.

“Fitness and availability tilt slightly toward Spain. Spain’s only expected absentee is Yeremy Pino, with minor doubts over Lamine Yamal and Pedro Porro, both anticipated to be fit. Argentina have a longer list of players nursing issues — Messi, Emiliano Martínez, Cristian Romero, Molina, Montiel, Paredes — though all are expected to feature, increasing late-game risk of small physical drops.

“Lamine Yamal’s blend of chance creation and ball progression against a physically aggressive Argentine right side (Molina/De Paul) makes him the most likely game-breaker. Even carrying a minor knock, he profiles to lead Spain in xA, successful take-ons, and shot-creating actions, and in this prediction he delivers the decisive extra-time goal plus multiple high-value chances, tipping both the underlying numbers and the narrative his way.”

A tally of results

So four calls for Spain, with only Gemini sticking its neck out by predicting an Argentine triumph. Google’s Gemini chatbot also went against the grain with its prediction of Messi claiming the Player of the Match Award ahead of Spanish teenage sensation Lamine Yamal — not an unexpected result, considering which team it’s tipping to win.

So which bot will prove to be the Nostradamus of AI soccer forecasting? You can find out for yourself by following our guide to watching the World Cup final for free, as well as the star-packed halftime show.