“There are signs the plans have advanced considerably since the 2023 conference,” the reporters wrote in the story published last week.

Indeed, the escalation ladder describes some things that are already happening.

“I do think we are a couple rungs up that ladder,” Galbreath said. “The fact that they are choosing to head down the path of military options here, I think, speaks volumes about where they think we are in our relative competition with one another.”

Chinese media have reported that engineers developed a powerful ground-based microwave weapon that could threaten satellites in LEO, including Starlinks. Russia has technology designed to jam Starlink receivers on the ground. NATO intelligence services are monitoring Russia’s work on a concept to eject small pellets into a satellite constellation’s orbit.

China and Russia aren’t alone. The US Space Force recently unveiled its own ground-based satellite jammer.

And there’s Russia’s reported plan to place a nuclear weapon in orbit, a violation of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967. If Russia moves in this direction, a nuclear detonation in low-Earth orbit could be the ultimate Starlink killer. The problem is that it would spread clouds of radiation throughout near-Earth space, rendering much of low Earth orbit unusable for any space mission for months or years. The consequences of such an event would not only cripple Starlink and US satellite networks but also those of Russia and China themselves.

“Any mission set that you can execute from low-Earth orbit becomes at risk by the mechanisms or means that China and Russia could develop to counter SpaceX and Starlink,” Galbreath said. “Communications, obviously. Imagery, absolutely. When you think of a constellation like Planet’s Dove (commercial imaging) constellation, that could become at risk as well.”

The same goes for the Pentagon’s proposed Golden Dome missile shield and the emerging use of satellites for battlefield targeting.

“All of those become at risk if China and Russia develop a successful means of countering Starlink,” Galbreath said.