Our national nightmare is over tonight as we have MLB action that counts for the first time since Sunday. Just the one game, though, to kick off the second half of the season, and at least those league-high six Philadelphia Phillies All-Stars didn’t have to travel as the New York Mets visit Citizens Bank Park with an 8 ET start on ESPN.

Mets-Phillies MLB same-game parlay

• New York alt +2
• Alt Under 10.5

DraftKings SGP price: +114

It wouldn’t shock me if this is one of the 10 most-wagered games of the season simply for where it sits on the schedule and no live competition opposite. Every other team returns Friday, weather permitting, but these clubs get that day off with their early return.

You probably want to wait for lineups, especially here, because either manager could opt to give a star player the game off – especially among those on the Mets and Phillies who were involved in the All-Star festivities. That includes players like New York’s Juan Soto and Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh. Schwarber and Harper really only got Wednesday off, as they also competed in the Home Run Derby. 

Of course, both clubs are currently under interim managers. It has gone extremely well for the Phillies under Don Mattingly, as they are 45-24 under him compared to 9-19 when Rob Thomson was fired. Mattingly is now your +250 favorite for NL Manager of the Year, and no interim guy has won that. 

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Barring a mega-collapse, the Phillies will return to the postseason for a fifth straight year and are only two back of first-place Atlanta in the NL East. When Thomson was canned, that deficit was 10.5 games. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Philadelphia at 88.3 wins and a 76.5% shot at the playoffs. DraftKings has it at 89.5 wins, -900 for the playoffs and +650 for No.

While many Phillies are thriving since Mattingly took over, that’s not the case for high-paid righty Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA) as he takes the mound. Most thought his regression last year to 5-10 with a 6.01 ERA was an aberration, but maybe this is who the 33-year-old is now. Nola’s last personal win was May 26 in San Diego, and he is yet to win at home. If you had wagered $100 in the Phillies to win each of his 19 outings this year, you’d be down $242.

Nola took a home no-decision vs. the Mets on June 18, allowing two earned and seven hits over five. Francisco Lindor is just a .195 hitter off him with 11 strikeouts in 41 at-bats. Juan Soto has a 1.134 OPS vs. Nola in 45 at-bats with 17 walks. The model forecasts him at 5.2 innings, 5.1 strikeouts, 2.9 hits allowed and 2.7 earned runs. Nola is +178 to win via DraftKings.

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Meanwhile, the Mets were 34-47 when they fired manager Carlos Mendoza and have gone 6-10 under interim Andy Green. The playoffs are a pipe dream, as they sit 12 games out of the NL’s final wild card spot and with a less than 1.0% shot via the model. The Mets have been shut out nine times, tied for second-most in the majors.

Now that the break is in the rear-view mirror, president of baseball operations David Stearns should really start focusing on shipping out guys ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline. The pitching staff especially will be thinned-out over the next few weeks. There are plenty of high-priced veterans on expiring contracts, but New York won’t completely gut the roster with an expectation of contending in 2027.

One bright spot this year has been righty Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17 ERA), who gets the call tonight. He debuted in 2024 and then missed all of last season due to Tommy John surgery, not making his 2026 debut until about a month into the season. Scott faced the Phillies at Citi Field on June 27 and took a no-decision in allowing two runs and three hits over 4.1 innings. Bryce Harper hit a second-inning two-run shot off him.

Scott did throw five shutout innings vs. the Royals in his final start pre-break but hasn’t gone six innings yet in 2026. The model forecasts him at 4.8 innings, 5.4 strikeouts, 4.4 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs. He is priced +248 to win. 

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From my SportsLine cohort Jeff Hochman: Since 2002, the team that hosted the All-Star Game is 8-15 in its first game out of the break – which is always at home. Flat spot maybe? And I do wonder about the Phils resting Schwarber and/or Harper. The model has Phillies 5.0-4.9. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.